Research

• Optimal Capital Regulation

  Staff Working Paper 2017-6 Stéphane Moyen, Josef Schroth

  We study constrained-efficient bank capital regulation in a model with market-imposed equity requirements. Banks hold equity buffers to insure against sudden loss of access to funding. However, in the model, banks choose to only partially self-insure because equity is privately costly.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, E4, E44

• Canadian Bank Notes and Dominion Notes: Lessons for Digital Currencies

  Staff Working Paper 2017-5 Ben Fung, Scott Hendry, Warren E. Weber

  This paper studies the period in Canada when both private bank notes and government-issued notes (Dominion notes) were simultaneously in circulation. Because both of these notes shared many of the characteristics of today's digital currencies, the experience with these notes can be used to draw lessons about how digital currencies might perform.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58

• Stability and Efficiency in Decentralized Two‐Sided Markets with Weak Preferences

  Staff Working Paper 2017-4 Radoslav Raykov

  Many decentralized markets are able to attain a stable outcome despite the absence of a central authority (Roth and Vande Vate, 1990). A stable matching, however, need not be efficient if preferences are weak. This raises the question whether a decentralized market with weak preferences can attain Pareto efficiency in the absence of a central matchmaker.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C7, C78, D, D6, D61

• Price-Level Dispersion versus Inflation-Rate Dispersion: Evidence from Three Countries

  Staff Working Paper 2017-3 David Fielding, Christopher Hajzler, James (Jim) C. MacGee

  Inflation can affect both the dispersion of commodity-specific price levels across locations (relative price variability, RPV) and the dispersion of inflation rates (relative inflation variability, RIV). Some menu-cost models and models of consumer search suggest that the RIV-inflation relationship could differ from the RPV-inflation relationship.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E50

• A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian GDP Growth

  Staff Working Paper 2017-2 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel

  This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it features a high share of international data.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C38, C5, C53, E, E3, E37

• Repo Market Functioning when the Interest Rate Is Low or Negative

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-3 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, James Hately, Adrian Walton

  This paper investigates how a low or negative overnight interest rate might affect the Canadian repo markets. The main conclusion is that the repo market for general collateral will continue to function effectively.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G1, G10, G12

• Global Real Activity for Canadian Exports: GRACE

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-2 André Binette, Tony Chernis, Daniel de Munnik

  Canadian exports have often disappointed since the Great Recession. The apparent disconnect between exports and the Bank of Canada’s current measure of foreign demand has created an impetus to search for an alternative.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43

• An Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-1 Patrick Alexander, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Alex Proulx

  We estimate two new equations for Canadian non-commodity exports (NCX) that incorporate three important changes relative to the current equation used at the Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F17

• Terms-of-Trade and House Price Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Study

  Staff Working Paper 2017-1 Paul Corrigan

  Terms-of-trade shocks are known to be key drivers of business cycles in open economies. This paper argues that terms-of-trade shocks were also important for house price fluctuations in a panel of developed countries over the 1994–2015 period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, E5, E51, F, F3, F36, F4, F41