Business fluctuations and cycles

• Average is Good Enough: Average-inflation Targeting and the ELB

  Staff Working Paper 2020-31 Robert Amano, Stefano Gnocchi, Sylvain Leduc, Joel Wagner

  The Great Recession and current pandemic have focused attention on the constraint on nominal interest rates from the effective lower bound.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52

• Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle

  Staff Working Paper 2020-25 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon

  We propose a new strength measure of the global financial cycle by estimating a regime-switching factor model on cross-border equity flows for 61 countries. We then assess how the strength of the global financial cycle affects monetary policy independence, which is defined as the response of central banks' policy interest rates to exogenous changes in inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rate regimes, Financial system regulation and policies, International financial markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, F, F3, F32, F4, F42, G, G1, G15, G18

• Identifying Aggregate Shocks with Micro-level Heterogeneity: Financial Shocks and Investment Fluctuation

  Staff Working Paper 2020-17 Xing Guo

  This paper identifies aggregate financial shocks and quantifies their effects on business investment based on an estimated DSGE model with firm-level heterogeneity. On average, financial shocks contribute only 3% of the variation in U.S. public firms’ aggregate investment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E22, G, G3, G31, G32
• May 4, 2020

  Bridge to Recovery: The Bank’s COVID-19 Pandemic Response

  Remarks (delivered virtually) Carolyn A. Wilkins C.D. Howe Institute Toronto, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses measures the Bank has taken to address the COVID-19 pandemic and set the stage for recovery.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments

• IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity

  Technical Report No. 116 Patrick Blagrave, Claudia Godbout, Justin-Damien Guénette, René Lalonde, Nikita Perevalov

  We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, E, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F0, F01, F3, F32, F4, F47

• Characterizing Breadth in Canadian Economic Activity

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-1 Taylor Webley, Carla Valerio, Maureen MacIsaac

  Real growth in gross domestic product tends to be meaningfully higher when a large share of industries and demand components are growing—that is, when growth is broad across many fronts.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32
• February 5, 2020

  Securing prosperity is up to all of us

  Speech summary Carolyn A. Wilkins Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins explains that Canada is well-positioned to secure prosperity and avoid a long period of slow growth if we take the right steps.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Productivity
• February 5, 2020

  Our Economic Destiny: Written in R-stars?

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about how to navigate slow growth and discusses the types of policies that would help secure long-term prosperity.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Productivity

• Social Learning and Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound

  Staff Working Paper 2020-2 Jasmina Arifovic, Alex Grimaud, Isabelle Salle, Gauthier Vermandel

  This research develops a model in which the economy is directly influenced by how pessimistic or optimistic economic agents are about the future. The agents may hold different views and update them as new economic data become available.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Credibility, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C8, C82, E, E3, E32, E5, E52

• Model Uncertainty and Wealth Distribution

  Staff Working Paper 2019-48 Edouard Djeutem, Shaofeng Xu

  This paper studies the implications of model uncertainty for wealth distribution in a tractable general equilibrium model with a borrowing constraint and robustness à la Hansen and Sargent (2008). Households confront model uncertainty about the process driving the return of the risky asset, and they choose robust policies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D3, D8, E, E2