Evolving Temperature Dynamics in Canada: Preliminary Evidence Based on 60 Years of Data Staff working paper 2021-22 Robert Amano, Marc-André Gosselin, Julien McDonald-Guimond Are summers getting hotter? Do daily temperatures change more than they used to? Using daily Canadian temperature data from 1960 to 2020 and modern econometric methods, we provide economists and policy-makers evidence on the important climate change issue of evolving temperatures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Climate change
A Generalized Endogenous Grid Method for Default Risk Models Staff working paper 2021-11 Youngsoo Jang, Soyoung Lee Models with default options are hard to solve. We propose an extension of the endogenous grid method that solves default risk models more efficiently and accurately. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Credit risk management JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models
The Bank of Canada COVID‑19 stringency index: measuring policy response across provinces Staff analytical note 2021-1 Calista Cheung, Jerome Lyons, Bethany Madsen, Sarah Miller, Saarah Sheikh We construct an index that systematically measures and tracks the stringency of government policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic across Canadian provinces. Researchers can use this stringency index to analyze how the pandemic is affecting the economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, H, H7, I, I1, I18, R, R1 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Estimating Policy Functions in Payments Systems Using Reinforcement Learning Staff working paper 2021-7 Pablo S. Castro, Ajit Desai, Han Du, Rodney J. Garratt, Francisco Rivadeneyra We demonstrate the ability of reinforcement learning techniques to estimate the best-response functions of banks participating in high-value payments systems—a real-world strategic game of incomplete information. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): A, A1, A12, C, C7, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Networking the Yield Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2021-4 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Julia Schaumburg, Tatevik Sekhposyan We study how different monetary policies affect the yield curve and interact. Our study highlights the importance of the spillover structure across the yield curve for policy-making. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C2, C21, C5, C53, E, E4, E43, E44, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Chinese Monetary Policy and Text Analytics: Connecting Words and Deeds Staff working paper 2021-3 Jeannine Bailliu, Xinfen Han, Barbara Sadaba, Mark Kruger What are the main drivers behind the monetary policy reaction function of the People’s Bank of China? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Qualitative Field Research in Monetary Policy Making Staff discussion paper 2021-1 Chris D'Souza, Jane Voll Central banks conduct research involving in-depth interviews with external parties—but little is known about how this information affects monetary policy. We address this gap by analyzing open-ended interviews with senior central bank economic and policy staff who work closely with policy decision-makers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E3, E37, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19 Staff working paper 2021-2 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We use retail payment data in conjunction with machine learning techniques to predict the effects of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy in near-real time. Our model yields a significant increase in macroeconomic prediction accuracy over a linear benchmark model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Money and payments, Retail payments
Allocative Efficiency and the Productivity Slowdown Staff working paper 2021-1 Lin Shao, Rongsheng Tang In our analysis of the US productivity slowdown in the 1970s and 2000s, we find that a significant portion of this deceleration can be attributed to a lack of improvement in allocative efficiency across sectors. Our analysis further identifies increased sector-level volatility as a major contributor to this lack of improvement in allocative efficiency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, O, O4, O47 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Losing Contact: The Impact of Contactless Payments on Cash Usage Staff working paper 2020-56 Marie-Hélène Felt Contactless payment cards are a competitive alternative to cash. Using Canadian panel data from 2010 to 2017, this study investigates whether contactless credit cards are an important contributor to the decline in the transactional use of cash. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Retail payments