Measuring Potential Output at the Bank of Canada: The Extended Multivariate Filter and the Integrated Framework Staff Discussion Paper 2015-1 Lise Pichette, Pierre St-Amant, Ben Tomlin, Karine Anoma Estimating potential output and the output gap - the difference between actual output and its potential - is important for the proper conduct of monetary policy. However, the measurement and interpretation of potential output, and hence the output gap, is fraught with uncertainty, since it is unobservable. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E3, E31, E5, E52
A Foreign Activity Measure for Predicting Canadian Exports Staff Discussion Paper 2012-1 Louis Morel The author constructs a measure of foreign activity that takes into account the composition of foreign demand for Canadian exports. It has a number of interesting features. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, F, F1, F17
Trend Inflation, Wage and Price Rigidities, and Welfare Staff Working Paper 2007-42 Robert Amano, Kevin Moran, Stephen Murchison, Andrew Rennison This paper studies the steady-state costs of inflation in a general-equilibrium model with real per capita output growth and staggered nominal price and wage contracts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E0, E5
Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency Staff Working Paper 2001-5 Toni Gravelle, Richhild Moessner In this study we statistically quantify the reactions of Canadian and U.S. interest rates to macroeconomic announcements released in Canada and in the United States. We find that Canadian interest rates react very little to Canadian macroeconomic news and are significantly affected by U.S. macroeconomic news, which indicates that international influences on the Canadian fixed-income markets are important. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E0, E4, E5