Macroprudential Policy with Capital Buffers Staff working paper 2019-8 Josef Schroth The countercyclical capital buffer is part of Basel III, the set of regulatory measures developed in response to the financial crisis of 2007–09. This study focuses on how time-varying capital buffers can address inefficiencies in economies with endogenous financial crises. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
Crypto ‘Money’: Perspective of a Couple of Canadian Central Bankers Staff discussion paper 2019-1 James Chapman, Carolyn A. Wilkins The market for cryptoassets has exploded in size in the 10 years since bitcoin was launched. The technology underlying cryptoassets, blockchain, has also been held up as a technology that promises to transform entire industries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E51, E58, H, H4, P, P4, P43 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
The Distributional Effects of Conventional Monetary Policy and Quantitative Easing: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model Staff working paper 2019-6 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel This paper compares the distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing (QE) within an estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Corporate Debt Composition and Business Cycles Staff working paper 2019-5 Jelena Zivanovic Based on empirical evidence, I propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two financial sectors to analyze the role of corporate debt composition (bank versus bond financing) in the transmission of economic shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Frictional Capital Reallocation I: Ex Ante Heterogeneity Staff working paper 2019-4 Randall Wright, Sylvia Xiaolin Xiao, Yu Zhu This paper studies dynamic general equilibrium models where firms trade capital in frictional markets. Gains from trade arise due to ex ante heterogeneity: some firms are better at investment, so they build capital in the primary market; others acquire it in the secondary market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
The Secular Decline of Forecasted Interest Rates Staff analytical note 2019-1 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine Canadian interest rates show a secular decline since the 1980s. Long-term survey-based forecasts of interest rates also declined, but less so and were more gradual. Our model-based estimates show an endpoint shifting over time in three phases: a decline between 1990 and 1995, a period of stability between 1996 and 2007, and a further decline since 2008. The current endpoint estimate remains clouded with uncertainty; this is an active area of research. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report Staff discussion paper 2018-17 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Angelika Welte Cash use is declining while contactless and mobile payments are on the rise. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
Should the Central Bank Issue E-money? Staff working paper 2018-58 Charles M. Kahn, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Tsz-Nga Wong Should a central bank take over the provision of e-money, a circulable electronic liability? We discuss how e-money technology changes the tradeoff between public and private provision, and the tradeoff between e-money and a central bank's existing liabilities like bank notes and reserves. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
The Impact of Surprising Monetary Policy Announcements on Exchange Rate Volatility Staff analytical note 2018-39 Adam Albogatchiev, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jabir Sandhu, Reginald Xie We identify a few Bank of Canada press releases that had the largest immediate impact on the exchange rate market. We find that volatility increases after these releases, but the effect is short-lived and mostly dissipates after the first hour, on average. Beyond the first hour, the size of the effect is similar to what we observe for other economic releases, such as those for inflation or economic growth data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G10, G12, G14, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Does US or Canadian Macro News Drive Canadian Bond Yields? Staff analytical note 2018-38 Bruno Feunou, Rodrigo Sekkel, Morvan Nongni-Donfack We show that a large share of low-frequency (quarterly) movements in Canadian government bond yields can be explained by macroeconomic news, even though high-frequency (daily) changes are driven by other shocks. Furthermore, we show that US macro news—not domestic news— explains most of the quarterly variation in Canadian bond yields. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E4, E43 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness