Global Commodity Markets and Rebalancing in China: The Case of Copper Staff discussion paper 2019-3 Jeannine Bailliu, Doga Bilgin, Kun Mo, Kurt Niquidet, Benjamin Sawatzky Given that China accounts for about half of global copper consumption, it is reasonable to expect that any significant change in Chinese copper consumption will have an impact on the global market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): O, O1, O13, O14, Q, Q0, Q02 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada: Searching for the Unobservable Staff working paper 2019-13 Dany Brouillette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Laurence Savoie-Chabot, Pierre St-Amant, Bassirou Gueye, Elise Nelson In this paper, we assess several methods that have been used to measure the Canadian trend unemployment rate (TUR). We also consider improvements and extensions to some existing methods. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E2, E24, E27 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Local Labor Markets in Canada and the United States Staff working paper 2019-12 David Albouy, Alex Chernoff, Chandler Lutz, Casey Warman We examine local labor markets in the United States and Canada from 1990 to 2011 using comparable household and business data. Wage levels and inequality rise with city population in both countries, albeit less in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): J, J2, J21, J3, J31, J6, J61, N, N3, N32, R, R1, R12 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
The Size and Characteristics of Informal (“Gig”) Work in Canada Staff analytical note 2019-6 Olena Kostyshyna, Corinne Luu Underlying wage growth has fallen short of what would be consistent with an economy operating with little or no slack. While many factors could explain this weakness, the availability of additional labour resources from informal (“gig”) work—not fully captured in standard measures of employment and hours worked—may play a role. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E26, J, J2, J20, J3, J30, J4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Inequality in Parental Transfers and Optimal Need-Based Financial Aid Staff working paper 2019-7 Youngmin Park This paper studies optimal need-based financial aid when parental transfers—unobserved by policymakers—vary across and within families of similar means. Using data on U.S. college students, I document substantial inequality in parental transfers, especially among wealthier families. I then analyze how this affects aid design aimed at reducing inefficiencies from borrowing constraints and the aid itself. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, D6, D61, D64, D8, D82, I, I2, I22, J, J2, J24 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: If Text Could Speak, What Would It Say? Staff analytical note 2019-5 André Binette, Dmitri Tchebotarev This note analyzes the evolution of the narrative in the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). It presents descriptive statistics on the core text, including length, most frequently used words and readability level—the three Ls. Although each Governor of the Bank of Canada focuses on the macroeconomic events of the day and the mandate of inflation targeting, we observe that the language used in the MPR varies somewhat from one Governor’s tenure to the next. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
The State of Labour Market Churn in Canada Staff analytical note 2019-4 Olena Kostyshyna, Corinne Luu The literature highlights that labour market churn, including job-to-job transitions, is a key element of wage growth. Using microdata from the Labour Force Survey, we compute measures of labour market churn and compare these with pre-crisis averages to assess implications for wage growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J20, J3, J30, J6, J63 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Drivers of Weak Wage Growth in Advanced Economies Staff analytical note 2019-3 Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle Since the global financial crisis, advanced-economy wage growth has been generally low relative to past recoveries, especially after accounting for the evolution of labour market conditions over this period. This paper investigates a variety of potential explanations for this weakness, drawing on findings from the literature as well as analysis of recent labour market data in advanced economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F0, J, J3 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Corporate Debt Composition and Business Cycles Staff working paper 2019-5 Jelena Zivanovic Based on empirical evidence, I propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two financial sectors to analyze the role of corporate debt composition (bank versus bond financing) in the transmission of economic shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Frictional Capital Reallocation I: Ex Ante Heterogeneity Staff working paper 2019-4 Randall Wright, Sylvia Xiaolin Xiao, Yu Zhu This paper studies dynamic general equilibrium models where firms trade capital in frictional markets. Gains from trade arise due to ex ante heterogeneity: some firms are better at investment, so they build capital in the primary market; others acquire it in the secondary market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting