Output Comovement and Inflation Dynamics in a Two-Sector Model with Durable Goods: The Role of Sticky Information and Heterogeneous Factor Markets Staff Working Paper 2016-36 Tomiyuki Kitamura, Tamon Takamura In a simple two-sector New Keynesian model, sticky prices generate a counterfactual negative comovement between the output of durable and nondurable goods following a monetary policy shock. We show that heterogeneous factor markets allow any combination of strictly positive price stickiness to generate positive output comovement. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52
Low for Longer? Why the Global Oil Market in 2014 Is Not Like 1986 Staff Analytical Note 2016-11 Bahattin Buyuksahin, Reinhard Ellwanger, Kun Mo, Konrad Zmitrowicz In the second half of 2014, oil prices experienced a sharp decline, falling more than 50 per cent between June 2014 and January 2015. A cursory glance at this oil price crash suggests similarities to developments in 1986, when the price of oil declined by more than 50 per cent, initiating an episode of relatively low oil prices that lasted for more than a decade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, Q, Q4, Q41, Q43
Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy Staff Working Paper 2016-31 Gabriel Bruneau, Ian Christensen, Césaire Meh We perform an analysis to determine how well the introduction of a countercyclical loanto- value (LTV) ratio can reduce household indebtedness and housing price fluctuations compared with a monetary policy rule augmented with house price inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E42, H, H2, H23
Ce que révèle une analyse sectorielle des dynamiques récentes de l’inflation au Canada Staff Analytical Note 2016-7 Laurence Savoie-Chabot Decomposing total inflation in Canada as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) into its key macroeconomic factors, as presented in the most recent Monetary Policy Report, is an interesting exercise that shows how the exchange rate pass-through, commodity prices and the output gap have influenced the evolution of the total inflation rate over time. This aggregate approach, however, may mask important sectoral changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
Financial Crisis Interventions Staff Working Paper 2016-29 Josef Schroth This paper develops a model of an economy where bank credit supports both productive investment and individual consumption smoothing in the face of idiosyncratic income risk. Bank credit is constrained by bank equity capital. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Lender of last resort JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, E4, E44
The Real-Time Properties of the Bank of Canada’s Staff Output Gap Estimates Staff Working Paper 2016-28 Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Rodrigo Sekkel We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada’s staff output gap estimates since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest that the average staff output gap revision has decreased significantly over the past 15 years, in line with recent evidence for the U.S. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32
The Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture—Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Financial Stability: The Medium Term Is Still the Message Staff Discussion Paper 2016-13 Stephen S. Poloz In the Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture, Governor Stephen S. Poloz shows how changing the mix of monetary and fiscal policies can yield the same outcomes for growth and inflation, but lead to different results for public sector and private sector debt levels, which can impact financial stability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, E6, E63
What Are the Macroeconomic Effects of High-Frequency Uncertainty Shocks Staff Working Paper 2016-25 Laurent Ferrara, Pierre Guérin This paper evaluates the effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks on a set of low-frequency macroeconomic variables that are representative of the U.S. economy. Rather than estimating models at the same common low-frequency, we use recently developed econometric models, which allows us to deal with data of different sampling frequencies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, E4, E44
May 16, 2016 The Micro and Macro of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2016 Robert Amano, Dany Brouillette, Stefano Gnocchi, Natalia Kyui The article examines the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity in Canada and its implications for monetary policy. The authors ask whether its existence is a sufficient argument for a higher inflation target if concerns about the effective lower bound are adequately addressed. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Labour markets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E4, E5, J, J2, J23, J3, J30
How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030 Staff Working Paper 2016-15 Jeannine Bailliu, Mark Kruger, Argyn Toktamyssov, Wheaton Welbourn Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E23, E3, E32, O4