What Drags and Drives Mobility: Explaining Canada’s Aggregate Migration Patterns Staff Working Paper 2012-28 David Amirault, Daniel de Munnik, Sarah Miller Using census data at the economic region level from 1991 to 2006 and a gravity model framework, this paper examines the factors that influence migration within Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J6, J61, R, R2, R23
Semi-Structural Models for Inflation Forecasting Staff Working Paper 2010-34 Maral Kichian, Rumler Fabio, Paul Corrigan We propose alternative single-equation semi-structural models for forecasting inflation in Canada, whereby structural New Keynesian models are combined with time-series features in the data. Several marginal cost measures are used, including one that in addition to unit labour cost also integrates relative price shocks known to play an important role in open-economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C53, E, E3, E31
November 13, 2014 Recent Developments in Experimental Macroeconomics Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2014 Robert Amano, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Luba Petersen This article describes experimental economics, in general, and new developments in experimental macroeconomics, in particular. The approach has a clear niche in providing evidence on economic phenomena that cannot be observed directly or that are difficult to measure. Experimental work conducted by Bank of Canada economists has shed light on a number of issues important to monetary policy, such as the relative efficacy between price-level and inflation targeting, and the nature of inflation expectations formation. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C9, E, E3, E31, E5, E52
The BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s New in 2019? Staff Working Paper 2019-39 David Beers, Patrisha de Leon-Manlagnit Until recently, few efforts have been made to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada (BoC) developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults that is posted on its website and updated in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15
Quantile VARs and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting Staff Working Paper 2025-4 Stéphane Surprenant This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the performance of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) to forecast macroeconomic risk. Generally, QVAR outperforms standard benchmark models. Moreover, QVAR and QVAR augmented with factors perform equally well. Both are adequate for modeling macroeconomic risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37
Noisy Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2018-23 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Luca Gambetti We introduce limited information in monetary policy. Agents receive signals from the central bank revealing new information (“news") about the future evolution of the policy rate before changes in the rate actually take place. However, the signal is disturbed by noise. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C3, C32, E, E0, E02, E4, E43, E5, E52
The Monetary Transmission Mechanism at the Sectoral Level Staff Working Paper 2001-27 Jean Farès, Gabriel Srour This paper relies on simple vector autoregressions to investigate the monetary transmission mechanism in broad sectors of the Canadian economy. Two types of disaggregation are considered: one at the level of final expenditures, and one at the level of production. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52
April 14, 2007 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2007 Cover page Gas Cards All gas cards pictured here are part of the National Currency Collection of the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Do Sunspots Matter? Evidence from an Experimental Study of Bank Runs Staff Working Paper 2014-12 Jasmina Arifovic, Janet Hua Jiang A "sunspot" is a variable that has no direct impact on the economy’s fundamental condition, such as preferences, endowments or technologies, but may nonetheless affect economic outcomes through the expectations channel as a coordination device. This paper investigates how people react to sunspots in the context of a bank-run game in a controlled laboratory environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C9, C91, C92, D, D8, D80, E, E5, E58, G, G2, G20
The Macroeconomic Effects of Non-Zero Trend Inflation Staff Working Paper 2006-34 Robert Amano, Steve Ambler, Nooman Rebei The authors study the macroeconomic effects of non-zero trend inflation in a simple dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with sticky prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32