On the Believable Benefits of Low Inflation Staff Working Paper 1998-15 Christopher Ragan This paper reviews the existing theoretical and empirical literature addressing the benefits of low inflation. The ultimate goal is to arrive at a set of benefits in which a monetary authority can have genuine confidence. I argue that the current state of economic research—both empirical and theoretical—provides little basis for believing in significant observable benefits […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
Monetary Shocks in the G-6 Countries: Is There a Puzzle? Staff Working Paper 1997-7 Ben Fung, Marcel Kasumovich This paper attempts to reduce the uncertainty about the dynamics of the monetary transmission mechanism. Central to this attempt is the identification of monetary policy shocks. Recently, VAR approaches that use over-identifying restrictions have shown success in isolating such shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
February 17, 2011 Conference Summary: Financial Globalization and Financial Instability Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2010-2011 Scott Hendry The Bank of Canada’s annual conference, held in October 2010, brought together leading researchers from universities and central banks around the world. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies
Endogenous Central Bank Credibility in a Small Forward-Looking Model of the U.S. Economy Staff Working Paper 2005-16 René Lalonde The linkages between inflation and the economy's cyclical position are thought to be strongly affected by the credibility of monetary authorities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E5, E52
The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States Staff Working Paper 2002-22 Brigitte Desroches, Marc-André Gosselin This paper assesses the usefulness of consumer confidence indexes in forecasting aggregate consumer spending in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, E27
Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility, and Optimal Learning under Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2000-10 James Yetman The effective conduct of monetary policy is complicated by uncertainty about the level of potential output, and thus about the size of the monetary policy response that would be sufficient to achieve the targeted inflation rate. One possible response to such uncertainty is for the monetary authority to "probe," interpreted here as actively using its policy response to learn about the level of potential output. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
June 14, 2007 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2007 Cover page Decimalization in Great Britain The Victorian florin on the cover is part of the National Currency Collection of the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model, Part 4. A Semi-Structural Method to Estimate Potential Output: Combining Economic Theory with a Time-Series Filter Technical Report No. 77 Leo Butler The level of potential output plays a central role in the Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). This report, the fourth in a series documenting QPM, describes a general method to measure potential output, as well as its implementation in the QPM system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E2, E23
Retail Payment Innovations and Cash Usage: Accounting for Attrition Using Refreshment Samples Staff Working Paper 2014-27 Heng Chen, Marie-Hélène Felt, Kim Huynh We exploit the panel dimension of the Canadian Financial Monitor (CFM) data to estimate the impact of retail payment innovations on cash usage. We estimate a semiparametric panel data model that accounts for unobserved heterogeneity and allows for general forms of non-random attrition. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, E, E4, E41
June 14, 2007 Efficiency and Competition in Canadian Banking Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2007 Jason Allen, Walter Engert Allen and Engert report on recent research at the Bank of Canada on various aspects of efficiency in the Canadian banking industry. This research suggests that, overall, Canadian banks appear to be relatively efficient producers of financial services and they do not exercise monopoly or collusive-oligopoly power. The authors note the value of continuing to investigate opportunities to improve efficiency and competition in financial services in Canada. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies