Frédérick Demers

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Staff Working Papers

Evaluating Forecasts from Factor Models for Canadian GDP Growth and Core Inflation

Staff Working Paper 2007-8 Frédérick Demers, Calista Cheung
This paper evaluates the performance of static and dynamic factor models for forecasting Canadian real output growth and core inflation on a quarterly basis. We extract the common component from a large number of macroeconomic indicators, and use the estimates to compute out-of-sample forecasts under a recursive and a rolling scheme with different window sizes.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E37

Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?

Staff Working Paper 2005-44 Frédérick Demers, Annie De Champlain
The authors investigate the behaviour of core inflation in Canada to analyze three key issues: (i) homogeneity in the response of various price indexes to demand or real exchange rate shocks relative to the response of aggregate core inflation; (ii) whether using disaggregate data helps to improve the forecast of core inflation; and (iii) whether using monthly data helps to improve quarterly forecasts.

Prévision et analyse de la production manufacturière au Canada : comparaison de modèles linéaires et non linéaires

Staff Working Paper 2004-40 Frédérick Demers
In this paper, the author describes reduced-form linear and non-linear econometric models developed to forecast and analyze quarterly data on output growth in the Canadian manufacturing sector from 1981 to 2003.

Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices

Staff Working Paper 2003-24 René Lalonde, Zhenhua Zhu, Frédérick Demers
The authors develop simple econometric models to analyze and forecast two components of the Bank of Canada commodity price index: the Bank of Canada non-energy (BCNE) commodity prices and the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price. They present different methodologies to identify transitory and permanent components of movements in these prices.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5

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