Un modèle « PAC » d'analyse et de prévision des dépenses des ménages américains Staff Working Paper 2003-13 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde Traditional structural models cannot distinguish whether changes in activity are a function of altered expectations today or lagged responses to past plans. Polynomial-adjustment-cost (PAC) models remove this ambiguity by explicitly separating observed dynamic behaviour into movements that have been induced by changes in expectations, and responses to expectations, that have been delayed because of adjustment costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E21, E3, E32
World Real Interest Rates: A Global Savings and Investment Perspective Staff Working Paper 2007-16 Brigitte Desroches, Michael Francis Over the past 15 years, long-term interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1970s. This paper explores possible shifts in global savings and investment that have led to this fall in the world real interest rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E4, F, F3
May 30, 2019 Economic Progress Report: Investing in Growth Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Calgary Chamber of Commerce Calgary, Alberta Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about the importance of business investment to the Canadian economy and reviews the latest interest rate decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
June 21, 2008 Bank of Canada Oversight Activities during 2007 under the Payment Clearing and Settlement Act Financial System Review - June 2008 Walter Engert, Dinah Maclean Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Uninsured Idiosyncratic Production Risk with Borrowing Constraints Staff Working Paper 2005-26 Francisco Covas The author analyzes a general-equilibrium model of a heterogeneous agents economy in which the agents are subject to borrowing constraints and uninsurable idiosyncratic production risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, G, G1, G11, M, M1, M13
On Inflation and the Persistence of Shocks to Output Staff Working Paper 2001-22 Maral Kichian, Richard Luger This paper empirically investigates the possibility that the effects of shocks to output depend on the level of inflation. The analysis extends Elwood's (1998) framework by incorporating in the model an inflation-threshold process that can potentially influence the stochastic properties of output. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, E58
International Borrowing, Specialization and Unemployment in a Small, Open Economy Staff Working Paper 1998-2 Patrick Osakwe, Shouyong Shi Empirical evidence suggests that the unemployment rate and the export/GNP ratio are positively correlated with external debt across developing countries. This paper develops a dynamic model that provides an explanation for the aforementioned relationships. The central idea of our paper is that international borrowing affects unemployment and specialization patterns by unevenly changing the risk-sharing structure—across […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, J, J6
Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Value Chains Staff Working Paper 2019-19 Yuko Imura This paper provides a systematic, quantitative analysis of the short-run and long-run effects of various trade-restricting policies in the presence of global value chains and multinational production. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F13, F4, F41
Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis Staff Working Paper 2023-45 Tony Chernis I show how to combine large numbers of forecasts using several approaches within the framework of a Bayesian predictive synthesis. I find techniques that choose and combine a handful of forecasts, known as global-local shrinkage priors, perform best. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E37
Computing the Accuracy of Complex Non-Random Sampling Methods: The Case of the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey Staff Working Paper 2009-10 Daniel de Munnik, David Dupuis, Mark Illing A number of central banks publish their own business conditions survey based on non-random sampling methods. The results of these surveys influence monetary policy decisions and thus affect expectations in financial markets. To date, however, no one has computed the statistical accuracy of these surveys because their respective non-random sampling method renders this assessment non-trivial. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C4, C8, C81, C9, C90