June 22, 2010 Risks to Canada's Financial Stability in an Uncertain World Remarks Timothy Lane Winnipeg CFA Society Winnipeg, Manitoba The recent past has underscored the fact that, in finance and the economy, most things are interconnected on a global scale. Throughout its history, Canada has been powerfully affected by events elsewhere. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
September 15, 2008 The Effects of Recent Relative Price Movements on the Canadian Economy Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2008 David Dupuis, Philippe Marcil Although the standard of living of Canadians has improved as a result of terms-of-trade gains created by the sharp rise in real commodity prices over the past five years or so, the commodity-price increase, combined with an exchange rate appreciation and real income gain, triggered structural adjustments by altering underlying economic incentives. The frictions generated in adjusting to the relative price shock have likely contributed to hold back aggregate productivity growth. Dupuis and Marcil examine the structural adjustments that have been required-in particular, the resource reallocation among the different sectors of the economy-and its effects on employment, output, and productivity, as well as the responses of final domestic demand and external trade flows. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
August 18, 2011 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2011 This special issue, “Real-Financial Linkages,” examines the Bank’s research using theoretical and empirical models to improve its understanding of the linkages between financial and macroeconomic developments in the wake of the recent global financial crisis. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
December 8, 1994 Some macroeconomic implications of rising levels of government debt Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1994-1995 Tiff Macklem The level of government debt in Canada relative to gross domestic product has risen steadily since the mid-1970s. Canada has not been alone in experiencing rising government indebtedness, but in comparison to other countries, Canada's debt load is now distinctly on the high side. The author reviews some of the effects of rising government debt levels on macroeconomic performance and provides some calculations aimed at illustrating their possible long-run impact on the Canadian economy. His analysis, which is based on a model of the Canadian economy used at the Bank of Canada, suggests that higher levels of government debt reduce both the level of output and the share of output that is available for domestic consumption. The central policy implication is that there are substantial benefits to halting the rise in government debt and thus preventing further erosion of consumption opportunities. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Recent economic and financial developments
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023 Staff Analytical Note 2023-5 Salma Ahmed, Aviel Avshalumov, Tania Chaar, Eshini Ekanayake, Helen Lao, Louis Poirier, Jenna Rolland-Mills, Argyn Toktamyssov, Lin Xiang We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4
Money Demand and Economic Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2004-25 Joseph Atta-Mensah The author examines the impact of economic uncertainty on the demand for money. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E5, E50
Innovation and Growth with Financial, and Other, Frictions Staff Working Paper 2011-25 Jonathan Chiu, Césaire Meh, Randall Wright The generation and implementation of ideas, or knowledge, is crucial for economic performance. We study this process in a model of endogenous growth with frictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E4, G, G2, O, O3, O4
Terms-of-Trade and House Price Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Study Staff Working Paper 2017-1 Paul Corrigan Terms-of-trade shocks are known to be key drivers of business cycles in open economies. This paper argues that terms-of-trade shocks were also important for house price fluctuations in a panel of developed countries over the 1994–2015 period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, E5, E51, F, F3, F36, F4, F41
April 13, 2016 Monetary Policy Report – April 2016 Canada’s economy is projected to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2016 and return to potential next year as complex adjustments continue. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
Optimal Taylor Rules in an Estimated Model of a Small Open Economy Staff Working Paper 2004-36 Steve Ambler, Ali Dib, Nooman Rebei The authors compute welfare-maximizing Taylor rules in a dynamic general-equilibrium model of a small open economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): F, F2, F3, F31, F33