October 16, 2017 Business Outlook Survey - Autumn 2017 Results from the autumn Business Outlook Survey point to continued positive business sentiment across the country, with business activity becoming entrenched. Firms’ prospects remain healthy, although several survey indicators have moderated from the strong summer results. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
June 30, 2017 Business Outlook Survey - Summer 2017 Responses to the summer Business Outlook Survey suggest that business activity is continuing to gain momentum, buoyed by indications that domestic demand will improve further. Positive business prospects are increasingly widespread across regions and sectors. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
What People Believe About Monetary Finance and What We Can(’t) Do About It: Evidence from a Large-Scale, Multi-Country Survey Experiment Staff working paper 2023-36 Cars Hommes, Julien Pinter, Isabelle Salle We conduct a large-scale survey to shed light on what people believe about public finance. An experiment demonstrates that central bank communication can persistently shift views on monetary financing. It further suggests that views on monetary financing impact support for fiscal discipline. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E5, E58, E6, E60, E62, E7, E70, G, G5, G53, H, H3, H31 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Artificial Intelligence and Financial Tail Risks Staff working paper 2026-40 Javier Ojea Ferreiro, Andrea Ugolini, Juan C. Reboredo This paper examines how market-perceived AI exposure is associated with extreme financial-sector gains and losses across five markets, using Expected Shortfall and skewness decompositions to distinguish AI-sector, macroeconomic, systemic and financial scenarios. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Monetary Commitment and the Level of Public Debt Staff working paper 2016-3 Stefano Gnocchi, Luisa Lambertini We analyze the interaction between committed monetary policy and discretionary fiscal policy in a model with public debt, endogenous government expenditures, distortive taxation and nominal rigidities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Measuring Limits of Arbitrage in Fixed-Income Markets Staff working paper 2017-44 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Nolin We use relative value to measure limits to arbitrage in fixed-income markets. Relative value captures apparent deviations from no-arbitrage relationships. It is simple, intuitive and can be computed model-free for any bond. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Market structure
Intermediary Market Power and Capital Constraints Staff working paper 2023-51 Jason Allen, Milena Wittwer We examine how intermediary capitalization affects asset prices in a framework that allows for intermediary market power. We introduce a model in which capital-constrained intermediaries buy or trade an asset in an imperfectly competitive market, and we show that weaker capital constraints lead to both higher prices and intermediary markups. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, D44, G, G1, G12, G18, G2, G20, L, L1, L10 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
Climate Change and Socio-economic inequality in the US Staff working paper 2026-16 Barbara Sadaba, Tatjana Dahlhaus This paper examines how climate change affects income inequality across US states. Using a new climate-inequality VAR and a century of daily temperature data, it shows that shifts across the full temperature distribution—not just average warming—have diverse effects on within-state inequality. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, D, D6, D63, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Climate change
Government of Canada Securities in the Cash, Repo and Securities Lending Markets Staff discussion paper 2018-4 Narayan Bulusu, Sermin Gungor This paper documents the properties of Government of Canada securities in cash, repo and securities lending transactions over their life cycle. By tracking every security from issuance to maturity, we are able to highlight inter-linkages between the markets for cash and for specific securities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G21, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
What Do Survey Data Tell Us About US Businesses? Staff working paper 2019-45 Anmol Bhandari, Serdar Birinci, Ellen McGrattan, Kurt See This paper examines the reliability of survey data on business incomes, valuations, and rates of return, which are key inputs for studies of wealth inequality and entrepreneurial choice. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E2, E22, H, H2, H25 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting