Flagship Entry in Online Marketplaces Staff working paper 2023-41 Ginger Zhe Jin, Zhentong Lu, Xiaolu Zhou, Lu Fang In this paper, we empirically study how flagship entry in an online marketplace affects consumers, the platform, and various sellers on the platform. We find flagship entry may benefit consumers by expanding the choice set, by intensifying price competition within the entry brand, and by improving consumer perception for parts of the platform. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, L, L1, L8 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Generalized Autoregressive Gamma Processes Staff working paper 2023-40 Bruno Feunou We introduce generalized autoregressive gamma (GARG) processes, a class of autoregressive and moving-average processes in which each conditional moment dynamic is driven by a different and identifiable moving average of the variable of interest. We show that using GARG processes reduces pricing errors by substantially more than using existing autoregressive gamma processes does. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Is Money Essential? An Experimental Approach Staff working paper 2023-39 Janet Hua Jiang, Peter Norman, Daniela Puzzello, Bruno Sultanum, Randall Wright Monetary theory says that money is essential if it helps to achieve better incentive-feasible outcomes. We test this in the laboratory. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, E, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Is Climate Transition Risk Priced into Corporate Credit Risk? Evidence from Credit Default Swaps Staff working paper 2023-38 Andrea Ugolini, Juan C. Reboredo, Javier Ojea Ferreiro We study whether the credit derivatives of firms reflect the risk from climate transition. We find that climate transition risk has asymmetric and significant economic impacts on the credit risk of more vulnerable firms, and negligible effects on other firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C24, G, G1, G12, G3, G32, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Structural challenges, Climate change
Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence from Earnings Calls Staff working paper 2023-37 Temel Taskin, Franz Ulrich Ruch This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008–09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earnings calls transcripts and a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, G, G1, G10 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
What People Believe About Monetary Finance and What We Can(’t) Do About It: Evidence from a Large-Scale, Multi-Country Survey Experiment Staff working paper 2023-36 Cars Hommes, Julien Pinter, Isabelle Salle We conduct a large-scale survey to shed light on what people believe about public finance. An experiment demonstrates that central bank communication can persistently shift views on monetary financing. It further suggests that views on monetary financing impact support for fiscal discipline. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E5, E58, E6, E60, E62, E7, E70, G, G5, G53, H, H3, H31 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Monetary Policy Transmission, Bank Market Power, and Wholesale Funding Reliance Staff working paper 2023-35 Amina Enkhbold I study how banking market concentration and reliance on wholesale funding affect monetary policy transmission to mortgage rates. I find that this transmission is imperfect and dampens the response of consumption, output, and housing prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Unpacking Moving: A Quantitative Spatial Equilibrium Model with Wealth Staff working paper 2023-34 Elisa Giannone, Qi Li, Nuno Paixão, Xinle Pang We propose a model to understand low observed migration rates by considering the interaction between location and wealth decisions. We look at different policies and find that temporary moving vouchers only slightly increase welfare, while lower housing regulations can decrease the welfare gap by lowering house prices nationwide. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G5, G51, R, R1, R12, R13, R2, R3, R31, R5, R52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Privacy-Preserving Post-Quantum Credentials for Digital Payments Staff working paper 2023-33 Raza Ali Kazmi, Duc-Phong Le, Cyrus Minwalla Digital payments and decentralized systems enable the creation of new financial products and services for users. One core challenge in digital payments is the need to protect users from fraud and abuse while retaining privacy in individual transactions. We propose a pseudonymous credential scheme for use in payment systems to tackle this problem. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2, G21, O, O3, O31 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis Staff working paper 2023-32 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova, Nicholas Sander We study the effects of financial frictions on firm exit when firms face large liquidity shocks. We develop a simple model of firm cost-minimization that introduces a financial friction that limits firms’ borrowing capacity to smooth temporary shocks to liquidity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, D22, E, E6, E65, H, H8, H81 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting