Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach
How exactly does forward guidance influence interest rate expectations?
Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
Content older than 10 years is available on the Bank’s Open Access Repository.
567
result(s)
The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil
Staff working paper 2020-39
Amor Aniss Benmoussa,
Reinhard Ellwanger,
Stephen Snudden
How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C5,
C53,
Q,
Q4,
Q47
Research Theme(s):
Models and tools,
Econometric, statistical and computational methods,
Monetary policy,
Real economy and forecasting
Cyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components Models
Staff working paper 2020-38
Barbara Sadaba,
Sunčica Vujič,
Sofia Maier
What is the time-varying impact of economic cycles on decisions to invest in human capital?
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E3,
I,
I2,
J,
J2
Research Theme(s):
Models and tools,
Econometric, statistical and computational methods,
Monetary policy,
Real economy and forecasting
Predicting Payment Migration in Canada
Staff working paper 2020-37
Anneke Kosse,
Zhentong Lu,
Gabriel Xerri
Developments are underway to replace Canada’s two core payment systems with three new systems. We use a discrete choice model to predict migration patterns of end-users and financial institutions for future systems and discuss their policy implications.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial services,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
E,
E4,
E42,
G,
G1,
G2,
G28
Research Theme(s):
Money and payments,
Payment and financial market infrastructures,
Retail payments
Child Skill Production: Accounting for Parental and Market-Based Time and Goods Investments
Staff working paper 2020-36
Elizabeth Caucutt,
Lance Lochner,
Joseph Mullins,
Youngmin Park
Can daycare replace parents’ time spent with children? We explore this by using data on how parents spend time and money on children and how this spending is related to their child’s development.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Fiscal policy,
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D13,
H,
H3,
H31,
J,
J2,
J22,
J24
Research Theme(s):
Monetary policy,
Real economy and forecasting,
Structural challenges,
Demographics and labour supply
Why Do Central Banks Make Public Announcements of Open Market Operations?
Staff working paper 2020-35
Narayan Bulusu
Central banks communicate the results of open market operations. This helps participants in financial markets more accurately estimate the prevailing demand and supply conditions in the market for overnight loans.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
D,
D5,
D52,
E,
E5,
E58,
G,
G2,
G21
Research Theme(s):
Financial markets and funds management,
Market functioning,
Models and tools,
Economic models,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy tools and implementation,
Money and payments,
Payment and financial market infrastructures
Monetary Policy and Cross-Border Interbank Market Fragmentation: Lessons from the Crisis
Staff working paper 2020-34
Tobias Blattner,
Jonathan Swarbrick
We present a two-country model featuring risky lending and cross-border interbank market frictions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Credit and credit aggregates,
International financial markets,
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E52,
F,
F3,
F32,
F36
Research Theme(s):
Financial markets and funds management,
International markets and currencies,
Financial system,
Financial institutions and intermediation,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy framework and transmission,
Monetary policy tools and implementation
Survival Analysis of Bank Note Circulation: Fitness, Network Structure and Machine Learning
Staff working paper 2020-33
Diego Rojas,
Juan Estrada,
Kim Huynh,
David T. Jacho-Chávez
Using the Bank of Canada's Currency Information Management Strategy, we analyze the network structure traced by a bank note’s travel in circulation and find that the denomination of the bank note is important in our potential understanding of the demand and use of cash.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C52,
C6,
C65,
C8,
C81,
E,
E4,
E42,
E5,
E51
Research Theme(s):
Models and tools,
Econometric, statistical and computational methods,
Money and payments,
Cash and bank notes
The Interplay of Financial Education, Financial Literacy, Financial Inclusion and Financial Stability: Any Lessons for the Current Big Tech Era?
Staff working paper 2020-32
Nicole Jonker,
Anneke Kosse
The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we assess whether financial education might be a suitable tool to promote the financial inclusion opportunities that big techs provide. Second, we study how this potential financial inclusion could impact financial stability.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Development economics,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Financial markets,
Financial services,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D14,
D9,
D91,
D92,
G,
G2,
G21,
G23,
O,
O1,
O16
Research Theme(s):
Financial system,
Financial stability and systemic risk,
Money and payments,
Digital assets and fintech
Average is Good Enough: Average-inflation Targeting and the ELB
Staff working paper 2020-31
Robert Amano,
Stefano Gnocchi,
Sylvain Leduc,
Joel Wagner
The Great Recession and current pandemic have focused attention on the constraint on nominal interest rates from the effective lower bound.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Economic models,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E32,
E5,
E52
Research Theme(s):
Models and tools,
Economic models,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy framework and transmission