118
result(s)
Explaining Unusual Cash Patterns in 2018
Staff Analytical Note 2019-22
Walter Engert,
Ben Fung,
Jozsef Molnar,
Gradon Nicholls
There was an unusually large decline of bank notes in circulation in October 2018. Some have argued that this was due to the legalization of cannabis in Canada in mid-October.
Content Type(s):
Staff Research,
Staff Analytical Notes
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Digital Currencies and Fintech,
Financial services
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E41,
E42,
E5,
E58
The Effects of Inflation Targeting for Financial Development
Staff Analytical Note 2019-21
Geoffrey R. Dunbar,
Amy (Qijia) Li
The adoption of inflation targeting (IT) by central banks leads to an increase of 10 to 20 percent in measures of financial development, with a lag. We also find evidence that the financial sector benefits of IT adoption were higher for early-adopting central banks.
Content Type(s):
Staff Research,
Staff Analytical Notes
Topic(s):
Financial Institutions,
Inflation targets,
Transmission of monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E58
The Impact of a Trade War: Assessment of the Current Tariffs and Alternative Scenarios
Staff Analytical Note 2019-20
Karyne B. Charbonneau
This note uses Charbonneau and Landry’s (2018) framework to assess the direct impact of the current trade tensions on the Canadian and global economies, as well as possible implications if the conflict escalates further. Overall, my findings show that the estimated impact of current tariffs on real gross domestic product (GDP) remains relatively small, which is in line with the literature on gains from trade, but the impact on trade is much larger.
Content Type(s):
Staff Research,
Staff Analytical Notes
Topic(s):
Recent economic and financial developments,
Trade Integration
JEL Code(s):
F,
F1,
F11,
F13,
F14,
F15,
F5,
F50,
F6,
F62,
F68
Outlook for Electric Vehicles and Implications for the Oil Market
Staff Analytical Note 2019-19
Étienne Latulippe,
Kun Mo
The market for electric vehicles (EVs) is growing rapidly. Subsidies and technological improvements are expected to increase the market share of EVs over the coming decade. In its base-case scenario, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects EV use to rise from 4 million vehicles in 2018 to 120 million by 2030, or from 0.3 per cent to over 7 per cent of the global car fleet.
Content Type(s):
Staff Research,
Staff Analytical Notes
Topic(s):
International topics
JEL Code(s):
Q,
Q4,
Q47
Online Job Seekers in Canada: What Can We Learn from Bing Job Queries?
Staff Analytical Note 2019-18
André Binette,
Karyne B. Charbonneau,
Nicholas Curtis,
Gabriela Galassi,
Scott Counts,
Justin Cranshaw
Labour markets in Canada and around the world are evolving rapidly with the digital economy. Traditional data are adapting gradually but are not yet able to provide timely information on this evolution.
Content Type(s):
Staff Research,
Staff Analytical Notes
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Labour markets,
Monetary Policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C8,
C80,
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J2,
J21
A Structural Model of the Global Oil Market
Staff Analytical Note 2019-17
Reinhard Ellwanger
This note presents a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the global oil market. The model identifies four types of shocks with different economic interpretations: oil supply shocks, oil-market-specific demand shocks, storage demand shocks and shocks to global economic growth.
Content Type(s):
Staff Research,
Staff Analytical Notes
Topic(s):
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
Q,
Q4,
Q41,
Q43
Assessing the Resilience of the Canadian Banking System
Staff Analytical Note 2019-16
Charles Gaa,
Xuezhi Liu,
Cameron MacDonald,
Xiangjin Shen
The stability of the Canadian financial system, as well as its ability to support the Canadian economy, depends on the ability of financial institutions to absorb and manage major shocks. This is especially true for large banks, which perform services essential to the Canadian economy.
Content Type(s):
Staff Research,
Staff Analytical Notes
Topic(s):
Financial Institutions,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
C,
C6,
C63,
E,
E2,
E27,
E3,
E37,
E4,
E44,
G,
G0,
G01,
G2,
G21
Measuring Non-Financial Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in Canada
Staff Analytical Note 2019-15
Timothy Grieder,
Claire Schaffter
The ratio of non-financial corporate debt to gross domestic product in Canada has increased noticeably in recent years and is currently at an all-time high. In light of this development, we use a unique firm-level dataset to construct vulnerability indicators for the non-financial corporate sector in Canada.
Content Type(s):
Staff Research,
Staff Analytical Notes
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Credit and credit aggregates,
Financial stability,
Monetary and financial indicators,
Recent economic and financial developments,
Sectoral balance sheet
JEL Code(s):
G,
G0,
G01,
G3,
G32
Reassessing the Growth of HELOCs in Canada Using New Regulatory Data
Staff Analytical Note 2019-14
Leila Al-Mqbali,
Olga Bilyk,
Stefan Caputo,
James Younker
Using new regulatory data on residential secured lending from Canadian banks, we assess the growth rate of home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).
Content Type(s):
Staff Research,
Staff Analytical Notes
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Financial Institutions,
Financial stability,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
G,
G2,
G21,
G28
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019
Staff Analytical Note 2019-13
Fares Bounajm,
Jean-Philippe Cayen,
Michael Francis,
Christopher Hajzler,
Kristina Hess,
Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle,
Peter Selcuk
This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon.
Content Type(s):
Staff Research,
Staff Analytical Notes
Topic(s):
International topics,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E10,
E2,
E20,
O,
O4