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Staff analytical notes

Staff analytical notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the current economic and financial context.

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220 result(s)

Modelling Canadian mortgage debt and payments in a semi-structural model

Staff Analytical Note 2024-1 Fares Bounajm, Austin McWhirter
We show how Canadian mortgage debt dynamics can be modelled in a semi-structural macroeconomic model, such as the Bank of Canada’s LENS. The model we propose accounts for Canada’s unique mortgage debt structure.

The impact of higher interest rates on mortgage payments

Staff Analytical Note 2023-19 Maria teNyenhuis, Adam Su
We investigate how the increase in interest rates since early 2022 is affecting mortgage payments. By November 2023, less than half of mortgage holders had faced higher payments. Many borrowers will see a sizable increase in payments at renewal, although income growth could help mitigate the impact.

Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation

We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.

Machine learning for economics research: when, what and how

Staff Analytical Note 2023-16 Ajit Desai
This article reviews selected papers that use machine learning for economics research and policy analysis. Our review highlights when machine learning is used in economics, the commonly preferred models and how those models are used.

Three things we learned about the Lynx payment system

Staff Analytical Note 2023-14 Nikil Chande, Zhentong Lu, Hiru Rodrigo, Phoebe Tian
Canada transitioned to a new wholesale payment system, Lynx, in August 2021. Lynx is based on a real-time settlement model that eliminates credit risk in the system. This model can require more liquidity; however, Lynx’s design allows Canada’s wholesale payments to settle efficiently.

Tattle-tails: Gauging downside risks using option prices

Staff Analytical Note 2023-13 Greg Adams, Maksym Tupis
Options markets offer unique insights into the changing risks different assets face, which helps us better understand the broader risks to the Canadian economy. We show how option prices help reveal that investors did not anticipate large downside risks to either major Canadian banks or economic growth during the March 2023 financial sector system stress, a period when policy-makers and investors were unsure of what the future held for Canada’s economy.

The contribution of firm profits to the recent rise in inflation

Staff Analytical Note 2023-12 Panagiotis Bouras, Christian Bustamante, Xing Guo, Jacob Short
We measure the contribution to inflation from the growth in markups of Canadian firms. The dynamics of inflation and markups suggest that changes in markups could account for less than one-tenth of inflation in 2021. Further, they suggest that peak inflation was driven primarily by changes in the costs of firms.

Do hedge funds support liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market?

Staff Analytical Note 2023-11 Jabir Sandhu, Rishi Vala
While Government of Canada bond transactions of hedge funds are typically in the opposite direction to those of other market participants, during the peak period of market turmoil in March 2020, hedge funds sold these bonds, just as other market participants did. This shows that hedge funds can at times contribute to one-sided markets and amplify declines in market liquidity.
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