Staff analytical notes

Staff analytical notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the current economic and financial context.



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193 result(s)

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment

We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%.

Benchmarks for assessing labour market health

Staff Analytical Note 2022-2 Erik Ens, Corinne Luu, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee
We propose a range of benchmarks for assessing labour market strength for monetary policy. This work builds on a previous framework that considers how diverse and segmented the labour market is. We apply these benchmarks to the Canadian labour market and find that it has more than recovered from the COVID-19 shock.

Housing demand in Canada: A novel approach to classifying mortgaged homebuyers

Staff Analytical Note 2022-1 Mikael Khan, Yang Xu
We introduce a novel approach to categorize mortgaged homebuyers into first-time homebuyers, repeat homebuyers and investors. We show how these groups contribute to activity in Canadian housing markets, and we analyze the differences in their demographic and financial characteristics.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): R, R2, R21, R3, R31

The impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchase Program

We assess the response of Government of Canada bond yields to the Bank of Canada’s initial announcement of the Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP) as well as to the Bank’s later GBPP purchase operations.

Can the characteristics of new mortgages predict borrowers’ financial stress? Insights from the 2014 oil price decline

Staff Analytical Note 2021-22 Olga Bilyk, Ken Chow, Yang Xu
We study the relationship between characteristics of new mortgages and borrowers’ financial stress in Canada’s energy-intensive regions following the 2014 collapse in oil prices. We find that borrowers with limited home equity were more likely to have difficulty repaying debt.

Reaching for yield or resiliency? Explaining the shift in Canadian pension plan portfolios

“Reach for yield”—This is the commonly heard explanation for why pension plans shift their portfolios toward alternative assets. But we show that the new portfolios also hold more bonds, offer lower average returns and produce smaller and less volatile solvency deficits. These shifts are part of a broader strategy to reduce solvency risk.

Household financial vulnerabilities and physical climate risks

Staff Analytical Note 2021-19 Thibaut Duprey, Colin Jones, Callie Symmers, Geneviève Vallée
Natural disasters occur more often than before, potentially exposing households to financial distress. We study the intersection between household financial vulnerabilities and severe weather events.

Canadian job postings in digital sectors during COVID-19

Staff Analytical Note 2021-18 Alejandra Bellatin, Gabriela Galassi
Digital technologies have helped maintain economic activity while allowing people to remain physically distant throughout the COVID-19 crisis. This note shows that the number of online postings for jobs related to the production of digital technologies in Canada decreased less than the number for other jobs and recovered more quickly after lockdowns were lifted.

The uneven economic consequences of COVID 19: A structural analysis

Staff Analytical Note 2021-17 Martin Kuncl, Austin McWhirter, Alexander Ueberfeldt
Using a structural model, we study the economic consequences of the COVID-19 shock. The uneven consequences, such as higher unemployment among young households, amplify the negative implications for the macroeconomy, household vulnerabilities and consumption inequality. Government support programs have stimulated the economy and lowered inequality and medium-term vulnerabilities.
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