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370
result(s)
Turning Words into Numbers: Measuring News Media Coverage of Shortages
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-8
Lin Chen,
Stephanie Houle
We develop high-frequency, news-based indicators using natural language processing methods to analyze news media texts. Our indicators track both supply (raw, intermediate and final goods) and labour shortages over time. They also provide weekly time-varying topic narratives about various types of shortages.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Econometric and statistical methods,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C55,
C8,
C82,
E,
E3,
E37
Firms’ inflation expectations and price-setting behaviour in Canada: Evidence from a business survey
Staff Analytical Note 2023-3
Ramisha Asghar,
James Fudurich,
Jane Voll
Canadian firms’ expectations for high inflation may be influencing their price setting, supporting strong price growth and delays in the transmission of monetary policy. Using data from the Business Outlook Survey, we investigate the reasons behind widespread price growth seen in Canada in 2021 and early 2022.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy transmission,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D22,
E,
E3,
E31
Introducing the Bank of Canada’s Market Participants Survey
Staff Analytical Note 2023-1
Annick Demers,
Tamara Gomes,
Stephane Gignac
The Market Participants Survey (MPS) gathers financial market participants’ expectations for key macroeconomic and financial variables and for monetary policy. This staff analytical note describes the MPS’s objectives and main features, its process and design, and how Bank of Canada staff use the results.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C8,
C83,
E,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E52,
E58,
G,
G1,
G12,
G14
Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM)
Technical Report No. 123
Kerem Tuzcuoglu
The Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM) is a new nonlinear two-country dynamic model that captures rare but severe adverse shocks. The RAMM can be used to assess the financial stability implications of both domestic and foreign-originated risk scenarios.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C51,
E,
E3,
E37,
E4,
E44,
F,
F4,
F44
Gazing at r-star: A Hysteresis Perspective
Staff Working Paper 2023-5
Paul Beaudry,
Katya Kartashova,
Césaire Meh
Many explanations for the decline in real interest rates over the last 30 years point to the role that population aging or rising income inequality plays in increasing the long-run aggregate demand for assets. Notwithstanding the importance of such factors, the starting point of this paper is to show that the major change driving household asset demand over this period is instead an increased desire—for a given age and income level—to hold assets.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Fiscal policy,
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E3,
E31,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E6,
E62,
G,
G5,
G51,
H,
H6
Understanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics
Staff Working Paper 2022-50
Martin Harding,
Jesper Lindé,
Mathias Trabandt
We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. Our model can generate more sizable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model when inflation is high.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Central bank research,
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Inflation: costs and benefits,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E30,
E31,
E32,
E37,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E52
Harnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance
Staff Analytical Note 2022-13
Vivian Chu,
Yang Zhang
A low level of the neutral rate of interest increases the likelihood that a central bank’s policy rate will reach its effective lower bound (ELB) in future economic downturns. In a low neutral rate environment, using an extended monetary policy toolkit including forward guidance helps address the ELB challenge. Using the Bank’s Terms-of-Trade Economic Model, we assess the benefits and limitations of a state-contingent forward guidance implemented within a flexible inflation targeting framework.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Economic models,
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E27,
E3,
E37,
E4,
E5,
E52,
E58
The Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations?
Staff Working Paper 2022-41
Paul Beaudry,
Thomas J. Carter,
Amartya Lahiri
When countries are hit by supply shocks, central banks often face the dilemma of either looking through such shocks or reacting to them to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework to capture this dilemma and then explore optimal policy under a range of assumptions about how expectations are formed.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Monetary policy communications
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E12,
E2,
E24,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E6,
E65
House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data
Staff Working Paper 2022-39
Denis Gorea,
Oleksiy Kryvtsov,
Marianna Kudlyak
Existing literature documents that house prices respond to monetary policy surprises with a significant delay, taking years to reach their peak response. We present new evidence of a much faster response.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Housing,
Inflation and prices,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
R,
R2,
R21,
R3,
R31