238
result(s)
Shaping the future: Policy shocks and the GDP growth distribution
Staff Working Paper 2021-24
Francois-Michel Boire,
Thibaut Duprey,
Alexander Ueberfeldt
Can central bank and government policies impact the risks around the outlook for GDP growth? We find that fiscal stimulus makes strong GDP growth more likely—even more so when monetary policy is constrained—rather than weak GDP growth less likely. Thus, fiscal stimulus should accelerate the recovery phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability,
Fiscal policy,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
C5,
C53,
E,
E5,
E52,
E6,
E62
Detecting exuberance in house prices across Canadian cities
Staff Analytical Note 2021-9
Ugochi Emenogu,
Cars Hommes,
Mikael Khan
We introduce a model to detect periods of extrapolative house price expectations across Canadian cities. The House Price Exuberance Indicator can be updated on a quarterly basis to support the Bank of Canada’s broader assessment of housing market imbalances.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability,
Housing
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
R,
R2,
R21,
R3,
R31
COVID-19’s impact on the financial health of Canadian businesses: An initial assessment
Staff Analytical Note 2021-8
Timothy Grieder,
Mikael Khan,
Juan Ortega,
Callie Symmers
Despite COVID-19 challenges, bold policy measures in Canada have helped businesses manage cash flow pressures and kept insolvency filings low. But the impact of the pandemic has been uneven, and the financial health of some firms may further deteriorate over the next year.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Credit and credit aggregates,
Financial stability,
Firm dynamics,
Recent economic and financial developments,
Sectoral balance sheet
JEL Code(s):
G,
G3,
G31,
G32,
G33,
G38
Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies
Staff Working Paper 2021-21
Josef Schroth
Macroprudential policy should aim for bank balance sheets that are larger and safer during normal times but smaller and riskier during financial crises. During recoveries from financial crises, monetary policy should complement macroprudential policy by being less expansive than what would be required to close the labour gap.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
E6,
E60,
G,
G2,
G21,
G28
Behaviour in the Canadian large-value payment system: COVID-19 vs. the global financial crisis
Staff Analytical Note 2021-7
Alexander Chaudhry,
Anneke Kosse,
Karen Sondergard
Unlike the 2008–09 global financial crisis, the onset of the COVID-19 crisis did not raise stress levels in Canada’s Large Value Transfer System. Swift changes to the Bank of Canada’s collateral policy and its large-scale asset purchase programs likely eased liquidity pressures in the system.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Financial institutions,
Financial stability,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E42,
E5,
E51,
E58,
E6,
E65
Update on housing market imbalances and household indebtedness
Staff Analytical Note 2021-4
Mikael Khan,
Olga Bilyk,
Matthew Ackman
Exceptional strength in the housing market during the pandemic is underpinning Canada’s economic recovery. However, two key vulnerabilities—housing market imbalances and elevated household indebtedness—have intensified.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Credit and credit aggregates,
Financial stability,
Housing,
Recent economic and financial developments,
Sectoral balance sheet
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D14,
D8,
D84,
E,
E5,
G,
G2,
G21,
G28,
R,
R2,
R21
Stablecoin Assessment Framework
Staff Discussion Paper 2021-6
Alejandro García,
Bena Lands,
Dennis Yanchus
We offer relevant authorities a three-step assessment framework they can use to understand, identify and quantify the risks associated with stablecoin and other cryptocurrency arrangements.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Digital currencies and fintech,
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
D,
D7,
D78,
D8,
D81,
G,
G0,
G01,
G1,
G18,
O,
O3,
O38
Non-bank financial intermediation in Canada: a pulse check
Staff Analytical Note 2021-2
Rohan Arora,
Guillaume Bédard-Pagé,
Philippe Besnier,
Hayden Ford,
Alan Walsh
The Canadian non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector saw strong growth in 2018 and 2019. In 2020, COVID‑19 caused a financial shock. We provide a preliminary analysis on the impact of COVID‑19 on the sector as well as an update on its growth.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
G,
G0,
G01,
G2,
G20,
G23
Market Concentration and Uniform Pricing: Evidence from Bank Mergers
Staff Working Paper 2021-9
João Granja,
Nuno Paixao
We show that US banks price deposits almost uniformly across their branches and that this pricing practice is more important than increases in local market concentration in explaining the deposit rate dynamics following bank mergers.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
G,
G2,
G20,
G21,
G28,
G3,
G34,
L,
L1,
L11