The Formation of House Price Expectations in Canada: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment
Staff Analytical Note 2019-24
Marc-André Gosselin,
Mikael Khan,
Matthieu Verstraete
We conduct a randomized information experiment leveraging the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We provide causal evidence that respondents revise both their short- and medium-term expectations of future house price growth in a way that is consistent with observed short-term momentum in house prices. However, empirically, house price growth tends to revert to its mean in the medium term.
Content Type(s):
Staff Research,
Staff Analytical Notes
Topic(s):
Financial stability,
Housing
JEL Code(s):
C,
C9,
D,
D8,
D84,
R,
R2,
R21
Disentangling the Factors Driving Housing Resales
Staff Analytical Note 2019-12
Mikael Khan,
Taylor Webley
We use a recently developed model and loan-level microdata to decompose movements in housing resales since 2015. We find that fundamental factors, namely housing affordability and full-time employment, have had offsetting effects on resales over our study period.
Content Type(s):
Staff Research,
Staff Analytical Notes
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Housing,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
E,
E2,
R,
R2,
R21
Non-Resident Taxes and the Role of House Price Expectations
Staff Analytical Note 2019-8
Mikael Khan,
Matthieu Verstraete
In recent years, the governments of Ontario and British Columbia have imposed taxes on purchases by non-Canadian residents of residential properties in certain jurisdictions.
Content Type(s):
Staff Research,
Staff Analytical Notes
Topic(s):
Financial stability,
Housing
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D84,
R,
R2,
R21
The Size and Characteristics of Informal (“Gig”) Work in Canada
Staff Analytical Note 2019-6
Olena Kostyshyna,
Corinne Luu
Underlying wage growth has fallen short of what would be consistent with an economy operating with little or no slack. While many factors could explain this weakness, the availability of additional labour resources from informal (“gig”) work—not fully captured in standard measures of employment and hours worked—may play a role.
Content Type(s):
Staff Research,
Staff Analytical Notes
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
E26,
J,
J2,
J20,
J3,
J30,
J4
Personal Experiences and House Price Expectations: Evidence from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
Staff Analytical Note 2018-8
Mikael Khan,
Matthieu Verstraete
In this work, we use novel Canadian survey data to study how expectations of future changes in house prices are influenced by personal experiences. We find that recently experienced changes in local house prices are routinely extrapolated into expectations of year-ahead changes in national house prices.
Content Type(s):
Staff Research,
Staff Analytical Notes
Topic(s):
Financial stability,
Housing
November 19, 2015
A Survey of Consumer Expectations for Canada
The Bank of Canada recently launched a quarterly survey to measure the expectations of Canadian households: the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE). The data collected provide comprehensive information about consumer expectations for and uncertainty about inflation, the labour market and household finance. This article describes the CSCE and illustrates its potential to offer rich information about Canadian consumers for researchers and policy-makers.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review Article
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Housing,
Inflation and prices,
Interest rates,
Labour markets,
Uncertainty and monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D12,
D8,
D84,
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
J,
J0