Bio

Dmitry joined the Bank in 2017 as a Senior Economist in the Monetary Policy and Financial Studies (MPFS) division and became a Principal Researcher from 2020. Dmitry has led impactful policy-oriented modeling (including the neutral rate model development) and has contributed to shaping the Bank's NextGen monetary policy models. In addition to his modeling expertise, Dmitry brings a strong research background in monetary policy design and its interaction with fiscal policy.

Research Field(s): Asset Pricing Business Cycles Central Bank Communication International Macroeconomics Macroeconomic Theory Macroeconomics Monetary and Fiscal Policy Monetary Economics

Staff research

Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update

Staff analytical note 2024-9 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Dmitry Matveev, Laure Simon
We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment

Staff analytical note 2023-6 Julien Champagne, Christopher Hajzler, Dmitry Matveev, Harlee Melinchuk, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Galip Kemal Ozhan, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin
We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply

The Canadian Neutral Rate of Interest through the Lens of an Overlapping-Generations Model

Staff discussion paper 2023-5 Martin Kuncl, Dmitry Matveev
We use a small open economy model with overlapping generations to evaluate secular dynamics of the neutral rate in Canada from 1980 to 2018. We find that changes in both foreign and domestic factors resulted in a protracted decline in the neutral rate.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E22, E4, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply

Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature

Staff discussion paper 2022-9 Matteo Cacciatore, Dmitry Matveev, Rodrigo Sekkel
Central banks face considerable uncertainty when conducting monetary policy. The COVID-19 pandemic brought this issue back to the forefront of policy discussions. We draw from academic literature to review key sources of uncertainty and how they affect the conduct of monetary policy.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment

Staff analytical note 2022-3 Guyllaume Faucher, Christopher Hajzler, Martin Kuncl, Dmitry Matveev, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin
We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply

The Central Bank Strikes Back! Credibility of Monetary Policy under Fiscal Influence

Staff working paper 2022-11 Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev
Central banks in many advanced economies enjoy a high degree of independence, which protects monetary policy decisions from political influence. But how should independent central banks react if pressured by fiscal policy-makers? We examine whether a central bank should design a monetary policy framework that prescribes acting conditionally on how fiscal policy behaves.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E62 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation

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