Research
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Information Contagion and Systemic Risk
We examine the effect of ex-post information contagion on the ex-ante level of systemic risk defined as the probability of joint bank default. -
Fintech: Is This Time Different? A Framework for Assessing Risks and Opportunities for Central Banks
We investigate the risks and opportunities to the mandates of central banks arising from fintech developments. -
Adoption of a New Payment Method: Theory and Experimental Evidence
We model the introduction of a new payment method, e.g., e-money, that competes with an existing payment method, e.g., cash. The new payment method involves relatively lower per-transaction costs for both buyers and sellers, but sellers must pay a fixed fee to accept the new payment method. -
Firm Heterogeneity, Technological Adoption, and Urbanization: Theory and Measurement
This paper develops a model of firm heterogeneity, technological adoption, and urbanization. In the model, welfare is measured by household real income, and urbanization is measured by population density. I use the model to derive statistics that measure the effect of a new technology on productivity, welfare, and urbanization. -
Quantitative Easing and Long‐Term Yields in Small Open Economies
We compare the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programs with those implemented by the Bank of England and the Swedish Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank’s reserve expansion program. -
Monetary Policy Implementation in a Negative Rate Environment
Monetary policy implementation could, in theory, be constrained by deeply negative rates since overnight market participants may have an incentive to invest in cash rather than lend to other participants. -
Labour Force Participation: A Comparison of the United States and Canada
This note explores the drivers behind the recent increase in the US participation rate in the labour market and assesses the likelihood of a similar gain in Canada. The growth in the US participation rate has largely been due to a pickup in the participation of prime-age workers following a post-recession decline. -
Wage Growth in Canada and the United States: Factors Behind Recent Weakness
This note examines the relatively subdued pace of wage growth in Canada since the commodity price decline in 2014 and assesses whether the weakness is attributable to cyclical (e.g., labour market slack) or structural factors (e.g., resource reallocation and demographic change). -
A Structural Interpretation of the Recent Weakness in Business Investment
Since 2012, business investment growth has slowed considerably in advanced economies, averaging a little less than 2 per cent versus the 4 per cent growth rates experienced in the period leading up to crisis. Several recent studies have attributed a large part of the weakness in business investment to cyclical factors, including soft aggregate demand, and, to a lesser degree, heightened uncertainty and tighter financial conditions.