International topics

• June 30, 2023

  Exploring global value and supply chains

  

  Patrick Alexander, Chris D'Souza, Yuko Imura, Lena Suchanek

  The things we buy come out of complex production chains that span the globe. Understanding these connections is crucial for today's economies.

  Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, International topics, Trade integration

• Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence from Earnings Calls

  Staff Working Paper 2023-37 Temel Taskin, Franz Ulrich Ruch

  This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008–09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earnings calls transcripts and a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, G, G1, G10

• SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis

  Staff Working Paper 2023-32 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova, Nicholas Sander

  We study the effects of financial frictions on firm exit when firms face large liquidity shocks. We develop a simple model of firm cost-minimization that introduces a financial friction that limits firms’ borrowing capacity to smooth temporary shocks to liquidity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Firm dynamics, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, D22, E, E6, E65, H, H8, H81

• The Macroeconomic Effects of Portfolio Equity Inflows

  Staff Working Paper 2023-31 Nick Sander

  I provide evidence that portfolio equity inflows can have expansionary effects on GDP and inflation if not offset by monetary policy. I use a shift-share instrument to estimate equity inflows based on plausibly exogenous timing of inflows into mutual funds with heterogeneous country portfolios.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F3, F32, F4, F44

• An Investigation into the Effects of Border Carbon Adjustments on the Canadian Economy

  Staff Working Paper 2023-27 Y.-H. Henry Chen, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Craig Johnston, Sergey Paltsev, Marie-Christine Tremblay

  We examine the economic implications of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) for Canada. We find that, BCAs, in the form of import tariffs, reduce Canada’s carbon leakage and improve its competitiveness when Canada is part of a broad coalition of BCA-implementing countries. Welfare also improves when tariff revenues are transferred to households.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, F, F1, H, H2, Q, Q3, Q37, Q5

• Trade and Diffusion of Embodied Technology: An Empirical Analysis

  Staff Working Paper 2023-21 Stephen Ayerst, Faisal Ibrahim, Gaelan MacKenzie, Swapnika Rachapalli

  Using data from patents, citations, inter-sectoral sales and customs, we examine the international diffusion of technology through imports of sectoral knowledge and production inputs. We develop an instrumental variable strategy to identify the causal effects of technology embodied in imports on innovation and diffusion outcomes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, International topics, Productivity, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F6, F61, O, O1, O19, O3, O31, O33

• Cost Pass-Through with Capacity Constraints and International Linkages

  Staff Working Paper 2023-16 Reinhard Ellwanger, Hinnerk Gnutzmann, Piotr Śpiewanowski

  How are regional cost shocks passed through into global prices? We investigate the role of short-run capacity constraints and show that they can induce stark non-linearities in the pass-through. We highlight this effect for the market for ammonia, a commodity produced largely from natural gas.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): L, L1, L13, L6, L65, Q, Q4, Q40, Q5, Q54
• March 9, 2023

  Economic progress report: Thinking globally, acting locally

  Remarks Carolyn Rogers Manitoba Chambers of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers discusses the Bank’s latest interest rate decision and recent global and domestic developments, including how Canada’s economic and inflation experience compares with other countries.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, International topics, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments
• March 9, 2023

  Understanding the reasons for high inflation

  Speech summary Carolyn Rogers Manitoba Chambers of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba

  Speaking a day after we decided to hold the policy rate, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers talks about the factors behind high inflation and how we know inflation is falling.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, International topics, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments

• Exporting and Investment Under Credit Constraints

  Staff Working Paper 2023-10 Kim Huynh, Robert Petrunia, Joel Rodrigue, Walter Steingress

  We examine the relationship between firms’ performance and credit constraints affecting export market entry. Using administrative Canadian firm-level data, our findings show that new exporters (a) increase their productivity, (b) raise their leverage ratio and (c) increase investment. We estimate that 48 percent of Canadian manufacturers face binding credit constraints when deciding whether to enter export markets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, International topics, Productivity JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F3, F36, G, G2, G20, G28, G3, G32