International topics

• April 5, 2016

  China’s Great Transition: What It Means for Canada

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins discusses the risks and opportunities for Canada of China’s economic transition.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Financial stability, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Trade integration

• How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030

  Staff Working Paper 2016-15 Jeannine Bailliu, Mark Kruger, Argyn Toktamyssov, Wheaton Welbourn

  Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E23, E3, E32, O4

• Government Corruption and Foreign Direct Investment Under the Threat of Expropriation

  Staff Working Paper 2016-13 Christopher Hajzler, Jonathan Rosborough

  Foreign investment is often constrained by two forms of political risk: expropriation and corruption. We examine the role of government corruption in foreign direct investment (FDI) when contracts are not fully transparent and investors face the threat of expropriation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F23, F3, F34

• The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes

  Staff Working Paper 2016-9 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin

  This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying episodes of strong capital flows based on a regime-switching model. In comparison with the existing literature, a key advantage of our methodology is to estimate capital flow regimes without the need for context- and sample-specific assumptions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G1, G11

• The Evolution of the Chinese Housing Market and Its Impact on Base Metal Prices

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-7 Mark Kruger, Kun Mo, Benjamin Sawatzky

  The Chinese housing market has grown rapidly following its liberalization in the 1990s, generating significant economic activity and demand for base metals. In this paper, we discuss the evolution of the Chinese housing market and quantify its importance for the overall Chinese economy and its linkages to base metal prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): Q, Q3, Q31, R, R3, R31

• The Role of the International Monetary Fund in the Post-Crisis World

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-6 Mark Kruger, Robert Lavigne, Julie McKay

  The International Monetary Fund (IMF, or the Fund) has undergone a number of significant policy changes and reforms in the wake of the global financial crisis. Most notably, in December 2015, the United States approved long-delayed legislation to increase the representation of developing countries in the Fund’s governance structure.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33

• What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-5 Maxime Leboeuf, Robert Fay

  The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, D84, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31

• Agency Costs, Risk Shocks and International Cycles

  Staff Working Paper 2016-2 Marc-André Letendre, Joel Wagner

  We add agency costs as in Carlstrom and Fuerst (1997) into a two-country, two-good international business-cycle model. In our model, changes in the relative price of investment arise endogenously.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E4, E44, F, F4, F44

• A New Measure of the Canadian Effective Exchange Rate

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-1 Russell Barnett, Karyne B. Charbonneau, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle

  Canada’s international competitiveness has received increasing attention in recent years as exports have fallen short of expectations and Canada has lost market share. This paper asks whether the Bank of Canada’s current effective exchange rate measure, the CERI, is still an accurate measure of Canada’s international competitiveness.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F3, F31

• Debt Overhang and Deleveraging in the US Household Sector: Gauging the Impact on Consumption

  Staff Working Paper 2015-47 Bruno Albuquerque, Georgi Krustev

  Using a novel dataset for the US states, this paper examines whether household debt and the protracted debt deleveraging help explain the dismal performance of US consumption since 2007, in the aftermath of the housing bubble.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C2, C23, C5, C52, D, D1, D12, H, H3, H31