September 7, 2023
Inflation and prices
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September 7, 2023
Economic progress report: Target in sight, but we’re not there yet
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and what’s happening with inflation beyond the headline numbers. He also discusses why the Bank’s 2% inflation target is the right one. -
Digitalization: Implications for Monetary Policy
We explore the implications of digitalization for monetary policy, both in terms of how monetary policy affects the economy and in terms of data analysis and communication with the public. -
The contribution of firm profits to the recent rise in inflation
We measure the contribution to inflation from the growth in markups of Canadian firms. The dynamics of inflation and markups suggest that changes in markups could account for less than one-tenth of inflation in 2021. Further, they suggest that peak inflation was driven primarily by changes in the costs of firms. -
Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence from Earnings Calls
This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008–09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earnings calls transcripts and a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model. -
What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada?
We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time. -
Why Consumers Disagree About Future Inflation
Since 2022, consumer inflation expectations have shifted, with a significant increase in those expecting high inflation in the coming year and a surge in those expecting deflation further in the future. Using data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, this paper seeks to assess the factors that influence people to expect high inflation, moderate inflation or deflation. -
Markups and inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic
We find that prices and costs for consumer-oriented firms moved roughly one-for-one during the COVID-19 pandemic. This means firms fully passed rising costs through to the prices they charged. However, our results are suggestive, given data limitations and the uncertainty associated with estimating markups. -
Understanding Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Government Expenditures
We study the impact government expenditure has on inflation. We find that changes in government expenditure account for a substantial portion of inflation variations. We also find that inflation and inflation expectations respond negatively to fiscal spending shocks, reaffirming the supply-side channel through which inflation responds to fiscal expansions. -
June 8, 2023
Economic progress report: Are we entering a new era of higher interest rates?
Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry discusses the latest interest rate decision and suggests reasons why longer-term interest rates could remain higher than they were before the pandemic.