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43 Results

The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil

How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought.

Scenario Analysis and the Economic and Financial Risks from Climate Change

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-3 Erik Ens, Craig Johnston
This paper adapts climate-economy models that have been applied in other contexts for use in climate-related scenario analysis. We consider illustrative scenarios for the global economy that could generate economic and financial risks. Our results suggest there are significant economic risks from climate change and the move to a low-carbon economy.

The Simple Economics of Global Fuel Consumption

Staff Working Paper 2019-35 Doga Bilgin, Reinhard Ellwanger
This paper presents a structural framework of the global oil market that relies on information on global fuel consumption to identify flow demand for oil. We show that under mild identifying assumptions, data on global fuel consumption help to provide comparatively sharp insights on elasticities and other key structural parameters of the global oil market.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, L, L7, L71, Q, Q4, Q41, Q43

How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections

Staff Discussion Paper 2019-6 Olivier Gervais
We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature.

Outlook for Electric Vehicles and Implications for the Oil Market

Staff Analytical Note 2019-19 Étienne Latulippe, Kun Mo
The market for electric vehicles (EVs) is growing rapidly. Subsidies and technological improvements are expected to increase the market share of EVs over the coming decade. In its base-case scenario, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects EV use to rise from 4 million vehicles in 2018 to 120 million by 2030, or from 0.3 per cent to over 7 per cent of the global car fleet.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q47

The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada

Staff Working Paper 2018-56 Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou
How do global oil price shocks spread through Canada’s economy? With Canada’s regionally diverse economy in mind, we explore the implications of oil price shocks for Canadian housing markets and regional economies. We show that the belief that oil price shocks only matter in oil-rich regions is false.

Did U.S. Consumers Respond to the 2014–2015 Oil Price Shock? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey

Staff Working Paper 2018-13 Patrick Alexander, Louis Poirier
The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy is a topic of considerable debate. In this paper, we examine the response of U.S. consumers to the 2014–2015 negative oil price shock using representative survey data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey.