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307 Results

2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment

This paper presents Bank of Canada staff’s current assessment of the US neutral rate, along with a newly developed set of models on which that assessment is based. The overall assessment is that the US neutral rate currently lies in a range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.

The neutral rate in Canada: 2020 update

Staff Analytical Note 2020-24 Dmitry Matveev, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Rodrigo Sekkel
The neutral rate of interest is important for central banks because it helps measure the stance of monetary policy. We present updated estimates of the neutral rate in Canada using the most recent data. We expect the COVID-19 pandemic to significantly affect the fundamental drivers of the Canadian neutral rate.

BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s New in 2020?

Staff Analytical Note 2020-13 David Beers, Elliot Jones, John Walsh
The Boc–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default. The 2020 edition includes a new section examining the scale of domestic arrears in 2018.

BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Methodology, Assumptions and Sources

Technical Report No. 117 David Beers, Elliot Jones, John Walsh
Until recently, few efforts have been made to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada (BoC) developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults that is posted on its website and updated in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE).

Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle

Staff Working Paper 2020-25 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon
We propose a new strength measure of the global financial cycle by estimating a regime-switching factor model on cross-border equity flows for 61 countries. We then assess how the strength of the global financial cycle affects monetary policy independence, which is defined as the response of central banks' policy interest rates to exogenous changes in inflation.

Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool

Staff Working Paper 2020-13 Fabio Ghironi, Galip Kemal Ozhan
We study a novel policy tool—interest rate uncertainty—that can be used to discourage inefficient capital inflows and to adjust the composition of external account between shortterm securities and foreign direct investment (FDI).

Do Protectionist Trade Policies Integrate Domestic Markets? Evidence from the Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute

Staff Working Paper 2020-10 Jinggang Guo, Craig Johnston
We consider the effects of protectionist trade policies on international and domestic market integration, using evidence from the long-standing softwood lumber trade dispute between Canada and the United States.

IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity

We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance.