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348 Results

Immigration and Provision of Public Goods: Evidence at the Local Level in the U.S.

Staff Working Paper 2023-57 Anna Maria Mayda, Mine Z. Senses, Walter Steingress
Using U.S. county-level data from 1990 to 2010, we study the causal impact of immigration on the provision of local public goods. We uncover substantial heterogeneity across immigrants with different skills and immigrants of different generations, which leads to unequal fiscal effects across U.S. counties.

International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers

Staff Working Paper 2023-56 Sami Alpanda, Uluc Aysun, Serdar Kabaca
We evaluate, both empirically and theoretically, the spillover effects that debt-financed fiscal policy interventions of the United States have on other economies. We consider a two-country model with international portfolio rebalancing effects. We show that US fiscal expansions would increase global long-term rates and hinder economic activity in the rest of the world.

International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects

Staff Working Paper 2023-46 Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, Galip Kemal Ozhan
We study the transmission and third-country effects of international sanctions. A sanctioned country’s losses are mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses amplified, if a third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining.

A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight

Staff Working Paper 2023-44 Seunghoon Na, Yinxi Xie
This paper studies exchange rate dynamics by incorporating bounded rationality, that is, limited foresight, in a small open-economy model. This behavior of limited foresight helps explain several observations and puzzles in the data of exchange rate movements.

BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2023?

Staff Analytical Note 2023-10 David Beers, Obiageri Ndukwe, Karim McDaniels, Alex Charron
The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default. The 2023 edition includes a new section about the characteristics of sovereign defaults and provides new visuals showing regional debt in default.

BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Appendix and References

Technical Report No. 125 David Beers, Obiageri Ndukwe, Alex Charron
Since 2014, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has maintained a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. The database is posted on the BoC’s website and is updated annually in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE).

BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Methodology and Assumptions

Technical Report No. 124 David Beers, Obiageri Ndukwe, Alex Charron
The Bank of Canada (BoC), in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE), developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults in 2014. The database is posted on the Bank of Canada’s website and updated annually. The BoC–BoE database draws on datasets published by various public and private sector sources. It combines elements of these, together with new information, to develop comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Portfolio Equity Inflows

Staff Working Paper 2023-31 Nick Sander
I provide evidence that portfolio equity inflows can have expansionary effects on GDP and inflation if not offset by monetary policy. I use a shift-share instrument to estimate equity inflows based on plausibly exogenous timing of inflows into mutual funds with heterogeneous country portfolios.

An Investigation into the Effects of Border Carbon Adjustments on the Canadian Economy

We examine the economic implications of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) for Canada. We find that, BCAs, in the form of import tariffs, reduce Canada’s carbon leakage and improve its competitiveness when Canada is part of a broad coalition of BCA-implementing countries. Welfare also improves when tariff revenues are transferred to households.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, F, F1, H, H2, Q, Q3, Q37, Q5

Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023

We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment.
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