Understanding the Systemic Implications of Climate Transition Risk: Applying a Framework Using Canadian Financial System Data Staff Discussion Paper 2023-32 Gabriel Bruneau, Javier Ojea Ferreiro, Andrew Plummer, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts Our study aims to gain insight on financial stability and climate transition risk. We develop a methodological framework that captures the direct effects of a stressful climate transition shock as well as the indirect—or systemic—implications of these direct effects. We apply this framework using data from the Canadian financial system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20, Q, Q5, Q54
Supporting the Transition to Net-Zero Emissions: The Evolving Role of Central Banks Staff Discussion Paper 2023-31 Karen McGuinness While climate change was largely tackled by government policies in the past, central banks are increasingly grappling with the risks climate change poses. They are evaluating their operational policies to reflect these risks and the transition to a net-zero economy. This paper explores the trade-offs and considerations central banks face. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, E, E5, E58, E6, E63, G, G3, G32, Q, Q5, Q54
Central Bank Crisis Interventions: A Review of the Recent Literature on Potential Costs Staff Discussion Paper 2023-30 Patrick Aldridge, David Cimon, Rishi Vala Central banks’ actions to stabilize financial markets and implement monetary policy during crises may come with costs and side effects. We provide a literature review of these costs and discuss measures that may mitigate the negative impacts of crisis actions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Lender of last resort JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G1, G10, G2, G20
Making It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank Projections Staff Discussion Paper 2023-29 Marc-André Gosselin, Sharon Kozicki Macroeconomic projections and risk analyses play an important role in guiding monetary policy decisions. Models are integral to this process. This paper discusses how the Bank of Canada brings research models and lessons learned from those models into the central bank projection environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, E, E3, E37, E4, E47, E5, E52
How Far Do Canadians Need to Travel to Access Cash? Staff Discussion Paper 2023-28 Heng Chen, Daneal O’Habib, Hongyu Xiao This paper develops a travel-based metric to measure Canadians’ access to cash from automated banking machines (ABMs) and financial institution branches. We find that, overall, access to cash remained stable between 2019 and 2022. The total number of ABMs in Canada increased by 3.7% and the total number of branches decreased by 5.2% during that period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, J, J1, J15, R, R5, R51
Digitalization: Prices of Goods and Services Staff Discussion Paper 2023-27 Vivian Chu, Tatjana Dahlhaus, Christopher Hajzler This paper outlines and assesses the various channels through which digitalization can affect prices of goods and services. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Digitalization, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D2, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, L, L1, L11
Estimating the Appropriate Quantity of Settlement Balances in a Floor System Staff Discussion Paper 2023-26 Narayan Bulusu, Matthew McNeely, Kaetlynd McRae, Jonathan Witmer This paper presents two complementary approaches to estimating the appropriate quantity of settlement balances needed to effectively operate monetary policy under a floor system in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy implementation, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E52, E58, G, G2, G21, G28
An Overview of the Indigenous Economy in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2023-25 Alex Chernoff, Calista Cheung Several measures suggest economic outcomes have improved for Indigenous Peoples in recent decades. Yet, institutional settings and gaps in infrastructure and financing continue to hinder their economic progress. Recent efforts have helped address some data gaps, and new institutions are helping Indigenous communities to overcome historic barriers to growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Development economics, Financial services, Labour markets, Monetary policy transmission, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E0, E01, E02, N, N4, N41, N42, O, O4, O43, P, P4, P48
Variations in Pass-Through from Global Agricultural Commodity Prices to Domestic Food Inflation Staff Discussion Paper 2023-24 Daniel Hyun, Jacky Lee This paper examines factors that affect the transmission of fluctuations in global agricultural commodity prices to domestic food inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, Q, Q0, Q02, Q1, Q11, Q17, Q18
A Blueprint for the Fourth Generation of Bank of Canada Projection and Policy Analysis Models Staff Discussion Paper 2023-23 Donald Coletti The fourth generation of Bank of Canada projection and policy analysis models seeks to improve our understanding of inflation dynamics, the supply side of the economy and the underlying risks faced by policy-makers coming from uncertainty about how the economy functions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C51, C52, C53, C54, C55