The State of Labour Market Churn in Canada Staff analytical note 2019-4 Olena Kostyshyna, Corinne Luu The literature highlights that labour market churn, including job-to-job transitions, is a key element of wage growth. Using microdata from the Labour Force Survey, we compute measures of labour market churn and compare these with pre-crisis averages to assess implications for wage growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J20, J3, J30, J6, J63 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Drivers of Weak Wage Growth in Advanced Economies Staff analytical note 2019-3 Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle Since the global financial crisis, advanced-economy wage growth has been generally low relative to past recoveries, especially after accounting for the evolution of labour market conditions over this period. This paper investigates a variety of potential explanations for this weakness, drawing on findings from the literature as well as analysis of recent labour market data in advanced economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F0, J, J3 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Corporate Debt Composition and Business Cycles Staff working paper 2019-5 Jelena Zivanovic Based on empirical evidence, I propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two financial sectors to analyze the role of corporate debt composition (bank versus bond financing) in the transmission of economic shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Frictional Capital Reallocation I: Ex Ante Heterogeneity Staff working paper 2019-4 Randall Wright, Sylvia Xiaolin Xiao, Yu Zhu This paper studies dynamic general equilibrium models where firms trade capital in frictional markets. Gains from trade arise due to ex ante heterogeneity: some firms are better at investment, so they build capital in the primary market; others acquire it in the secondary market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
Can Capital Deepening Explain the Global Decline in Labor’s Share? Staff working paper 2019-3 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short We estimate an aggregate elasticity of substitution between capital and labor near or below one, which implies that capital deepening cannot explain the global decline in labor's share. Our methodology derives from transition paths in the neo-classical growth model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E22, E25, J, J3 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: An ICT Phenomenon? Staff working paper 2019-2 Jeffrey Mollins, Pierre St-Amant We ask whether a weaker contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to productivity growth could account for the productivity slowdown observed in Canada since the early 2000s. To answer this question, we consider several methods capturing channels through which ICT could affect aggregate productivity growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, O, O4, O41, O47 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
The Secular Decline of Forecasted Interest Rates Staff analytical note 2019-1 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine Canadian interest rates show a secular decline since the 1980s. Long-term survey-based forecasts of interest rates also declined, but less so and were more gradual. Our model-based estimates show an endpoint shifting over time in three phases: a decline between 1990 and 1995, a period of stability between 1996 and 2007, and a further decline since 2008. The current endpoint estimate remains clouded with uncertainty; this is an active area of research. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
The Role of Corporate Saving over the Business Cycle: Shock Absorber or Amplifier? Staff working paper 2018-59 Xiaodan Gao, Shaofeng Xu We document countercyclical corporate saving behavior with the degree of countercyclicality varying nonmonotonically with firm size. We then develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms to explain the pattern and study its implications for business cycles. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E22, E3, E32, G, G3, G31, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Fundamental Drivers of Existing Home Sales in Canada Staff discussion paper 2018-16 Taylor Webley Existing home sales’ share of Canada’s economic pie has been rising in recent years, and variation around this trend has resulted in outsized contributions to changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). In this context, we use a cointegration framework to estimate the level of resale activity across the Canadian provinces that is supported by fundamentals—namely, full-time employment, housing affordability and migration flows—to help look through the volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C23, E, E2, E27, R, R2, R21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
GDP by Industry in Real Time: Are Revisions Well Behaved? Staff analytical note 2018-40 Patrick Rizzetto The monthly data for real gross domestic product (GDP) by industry are used extensively in real time both to ground the Bank of Canada’s monitoring of economic activity and in the Bank’s nowcasting tools, making these data one of the most important high-frequency time series for Canadian nowcasting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C82, E, E0, E01 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting