Demographic Origins of the Decline in Labor’s Share Staff Working Paper 2023-20 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short Declining labour market dynamism of workers results in an increasing wedge between their earnings and their marginal product as they age. This wedge and the demographic shift in the earnings shares of older workers can account for 59% of the decline in labor’s share of earnings in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D3, D33, E, E2, E25, J, J1, J3, J6, J62
Fiscal Stimulus and Skill Accumulation over the Life Cycle Staff Working Paper 2023-9 Laure Simon Using micro data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey and Current Population Survey, I document that government spending shocks affect individuals differently over the life cycle. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D15, E, E2, E21, E6, E62, J, J1, J11, J2, J24
Are Working Hours Complements in Production? Staff Working Paper 2022-47 Lin Shao, Faisal Sohail, Emircan Yurdagul Using Canadian matched employer-employee data, we show that working hours of different workers are gross complements in production rather than perfect substitutes, as is typically assumed by macroeconomic models of production. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, J, J2, J22, J23, J3, J31
Canada’s Beveridge curve and the outlook for the labour market Staff Analytical Note 2022-18 Alexander Lam Canada’s labour market is tight but beginning to ease. Unemployment will likely rise in turn, but the economy can avoid a recessionary surge given current conditions. Higher unemployment would nonetheless be material, especially for those directly impacted. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, J, J2, J20, J6, J63, J64
Has wage setting changed in Canada? Evidence from the pre-pandemic 2020 Wage-Setting Survey Staff Analytical Note 2022-10 David Amirault, Sarah Miller, Matthieu Verstraete Just before the pandemic began, the Bank of Canada conducted the 2020 Wage-Setting Survey. The goal was to explore the unusual trend of subdued wage growth in 2018 and 2019 despite a tightening in the labour market. Although this wage puzzle was beginning to resolve at the time of the survey, results highlight changes in several factors that may have important impacts on wage dynamics. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Labour markets JEL Code(s): J, J3, J31, J32, J33, J6, J63
Income Inequality in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2022-16 Sarah Burkinshaw, Yaz Terajima, Carolyn A. Wilkins Data show that income inequality in Canada increased substantially during the 1980s and first half of the 1990s but has been relatively stable over the past 25 years. This increase was felt mainly by low-income earners and younger people, while older people benefited from higher retirement income. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Labour markets, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D6, D63, I, I2, I24, I3, I32, J, J3, J31, J32, N, N3, N32
Canadians’ Access to Cash Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic Staff Discussion Paper 2022-15 Heng Chen, Marie-Hélène Felt This paper studies Canadians’ access to cash using the geographical distribution of automated banking machines (ABMs). During the pandemic, there have been no sustained adverse effects on cash accessibility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial services, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J1, J15, O, O1, R, R5, R51
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health Staff Analytical Note 2022-2 Erik Ens, Corinne Luu, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee We propose a range of benchmarks for assessing labour market strength for monetary policy. This work builds on a previous framework that considers how diverse and segmented the labour market is. We apply these benchmarks to the Canadian labour market and find that it has more than recovered from the COVID-19 shock. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J6
What COVID-19 May Leave Behind: Technology-Related Job Postings in Canada Staff Working Paper 2022-17 Alejandra Bellatin, Gabriela Galassi COVID-19 affects technology adoption: online job postings for technology-related occupations fall less during pandemic lockdowns and pick up faster during reopenings than postings for more traditional occupations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): J, J2, J23, J24, O, O1, O14
Contribution of Human Capital Accumulation to Canadian Economic Growth Staff Discussion Paper 2022-7 Audra Bowlus, Youngmin Park, Chris Robinson This paper quantifies the contribution of human capital accumulation to the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, E, E2, E24, J, J2, J24, J3, J31, O, O4, O47