Strategic Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing Service Staff working paper 2020-55 Lerby Ergun, Andreas Uthemann We look at the informational content of consensus pricing in opaque over-the-counter markets. We show that the availability of price data informs participants mainly about other participants’ valuations, rather than about the value of a financial security. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, D8, D83, G, G1, G12, G14 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure
Monetary Policy Transmission amid Demand Reallocations Staff working paper 2024-42 Julien Bengui, Lu Han, Gaelan MacKenzie We analyze the transmission of monetary policy during different phases of a sectoral demand reallocation episode when there are frictions to increasing production in a sector. Monetary policy is more effective in reducing inflation when a larger proportion of sectors are expanding or expect to expand in the near future. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Simulating Intraday Transactions in the Canadian Retail Batch System Staff working paper 2023-1 Nellie Zhang This paper proposes a unique approach to simulate intraday transactions in the Canadian retail payments batch system when such transactions are unobtainable. The simulation procedure has potential for helping with data-deficient problems where only high-level aggregate information is available. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E4, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Seeking Safety Staff working paper 2018-41 Toni Ahnert, Enrico Perotti The scale of safe assets suggests a structural demand for a safe wealth share beyond transaction and liquidity roles. We study how investors achieve a reference wealth level by combining self-insurance and contingent liquidation of investment. Intermediaries improve upon autarky, insuring investors with poor self-insurance and limiting liquidation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking Choices Staff working paper 2024-4 Jiaqi Li, Andrew Usher, Yu Zhu To what extent does a central bank digital currency (CBDC) compete with bank deposits? To answer this question, we develop and estimate a structural model where each household chooses which financial institution to deposit their digital money with. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Inequality in Parental Transfers and Optimal Need-Based Financial Aid Staff working paper 2019-7 Youngmin Park This paper studies optimal need-based financial aid when parental transfers—unobserved by policymakers—vary across and within families of similar means. Using data on U.S. college students, I document substantial inequality in parental transfers, especially among wealthier families. I then analyze how this affects aid design aimed at reducing inefficiencies from borrowing constraints and the aid itself. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, D6, D61, D64, D8, D82, I, I2, I22, J, J2, J24 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Markov‐Switching Three‐Pass Regression Filter Staff working paper 2017-13 Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon, Massimiliano Marcellino We introduce a new approach for the estimation of high-dimensional factor models with regime-switching factor loadings by extending the linear three-pass regression filter to settings where parameters can vary according to Markov processes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C23, C5, C53 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Bouncing Back: How Mothballing Curbs Prices Staff working paper 2024-51 Thibaut Duprey, Artur Kotlicki, Daniel E. Rigobon, Philip Schnattinger We investigate the macroeconomic impacts of mothballed businesses—those that closed temporarily—on sectoral equilibrium prices after a negative demand shock. Our results suggest that pandemic fiscal support for temporary closures may have eased inflationary pressures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Monetary Policy Implementation and Payment System Modernization Staff working paper 2020-26 Jonathan Witmer Canada plans to adopt a retail payment system to allow Canadians to pay in real time (or near real time) 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. However, the traditional model for setting the overnight interest rate does not operate 24/7. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E42, E43 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Central Bank Digital Currency and Transmission of Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2024-27 Saroj Bhattarai, Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, Zhenning Zhao Using a general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and financial frictions, we explore whether introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) affects the transmission of monetary policy, and how the effects depend on CBDC design features. We also study whether paying interest on central bank liabilities is contractionary or expansionary. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E5, E58, G, G2, G21, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech