Monetary Policy Spillover to Small Open Economies: Is the Transmission Different under Low Interest Rates? Staff working paper 2021-62 Jin Cao, Valeriya Dinger, Tomás Gómez, Zuzana Gric, Martin Hodula, Alejandro Jara, Ragnar Juelsrud, Karolis Liaudinskas, Simona Malovaná, Yaz Terajima Does the transmission of monetary policy change when interest rates are low or negative? We shed light on this question by analyzing the international bank lending channels of monetary policy using regulatory data on banks from four small open economies: Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic and Norway. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F3, F34, F4, F42, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
What’s Up with Unit Non-Response in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey? The Effect of Staff Tenure Staff discussion paper 2017-11 Sarah Miller, David Amirault, Laurent Martin Since 1997, the Bank of Canada’s regional offices have been conducting the Business Outlook Survey (BOS), a quarterly survey of business conditions. Survey responses are gathered through face-to-face, confidential consultations with a sample of private sector firms representative of the various sectors, firm sizes and regions across Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, C8, C81, D, D2, D22 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Stress Relief? Funding Structures and Resilience to the Covid Shock Staff working paper 2023-7 Kristin Forbes, Christian Friedrich, Dennis Reinhardt Funding structures affected the amount of financial stress different countries and sectors experienced during the spread of COVID-19 in early 2020. Policy responses targeting specific vulnerabilities were more effective at mitigating this stress than those supporting banks or the economy more broadly. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E6, E65, F, F3, F31, F36, F4, F42, G, G1, G18, G2, G23, G3, G38 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
Identification of Random Resource Shares in Collective Households Without Preference Similarity Restrictions Staff working paper 2017-45 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Arthur Lewbel, Krishna Pendakur Resource shares, defined as the fraction of total household spending going to each person in a household, are important for assessing individual material well-being, inequality and poverty. They are difficult to identify because consumption is measured typically at the household level, and many goods are jointly consumed, so that individual-level consumption in multi-person households is not directly observed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C31, D, D1, D11, D12, D13, I, I3, I32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment Staff analytical note 2023-6 Julien Champagne, Christopher Hajzler, Dmitry Matveev, Harlee Melinchuk, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Galip Kemal Ozhan, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment Staff analytical note 2018-10 Andrew Agopsowicz, Dany Brouillette, Bassirou Gueye, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Jeffrey Mollins, Youngmin Park This note summarizes the reassessment of potential output, conducted by the Bank of Canada for the April 2018 Monetary Policy Report. Overall, the profile for potential output growth is expected to remain flat at 1.8 per cent between 2018 and 2020 and 1.9 per cent in 2021. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
March 26, 2014 Oversight Activities during 2013 under the Payment Clearing and Settlement Act This report reviews the Bank of Canada's oversight activities during 2013 and priorities for 2014 pursuant to the Payment Clearing and Settlement Act (PCSA). This annual report is intended to provide transparency and accountability regarding the Bank's activities in this area. Content Type(s): Press, Announcements
A Q-Theory of Banks Staff working paper 2021-44 Juliane Beganau, Saki Bigio, Jeremy Majerovitz, Matías Vieyra Using stock market data on banks, we show that the book value of loans recognizes losses with a delay. This delayed accounting is important for regulation because the requirements regulators impose are based on book values. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21, G3, G32, G33 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Prudential Toolkit with Shadow Banking Staff working paper 2025-9 Kinda Hachem, Martin Kuncl Can regulators keep pace with banks’ creative regulatory workarounds? Our analysis unpacks the trade-offs between fixed regulations and crisis-triggered rules, showing that the latter are especially prone to circumvention—and can trigger larger, costlier bailouts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E6, E61, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
A Structural Model of the Global Oil Market Staff analytical note 2019-17 Reinhard Ellwanger This note presents a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the global oil market. The model identifies four types of shocks with different economic interpretations: oil supply shocks, oil-market-specific demand shocks, storage demand shocks and shocks to global economic growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting