Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails Staff Working Paper 2018-50 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Tatevik Sekhposyan We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C3, C32, E, E0, E02, E4, E43, E5, E52
We Didn’t Start the Fire: Effects of a Natural Disaster on Consumers’ Financial Distress Staff Working Paper 2023-15 Anson T. Y. Ho, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez, Geneviève Vallée We use detailed consumer credit data to investigate the impact of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history, on consumers’ financial stress. We focus on the arrears of insured mortgages because of their important implications for financial institutions and insurers’ business risk and relevant management practices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D1, D12, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54
Fixed-income dealing and central bank interventions Staff Analytical Note 2022-9 David Cimon, Adrian Walton We summarize the theoretical model of central bank asset purchases developed in Cimon and Walton (2022). The model helps us understand how asset purchases ease pressures on investment dealers to restore market conditions in a crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20, L, L1, L10
June 21, 2006 The Impact of Unanticipated Defaults in Canada’s Large Value Transfer System Financial System Review - June 2006 Darcey McVanel Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
What to Expect When China Liberalizes Its Capital Account Staff Discussion Paper 2016-10 Mark Kruger, Gurnain Pasricha When China joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001, it marked a watershed for the world economy. Ten years from now, the opening of China’s capital account and the financial integration that will unfold will be viewed as a milestone of similar importance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rate regimes, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, G, G1, G18
International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects Staff Working Paper 2023-46 Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, Galip Kemal Ozhan We study the transmission and third-country effects of international sanctions. A sanctioned country’s losses are mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses amplified, if a third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41, F42, F5, F51
Cash Versus Card: Payment Discontinuities and the Burden of Holding Coins Staff Working Paper 2017-47 Heng Chen, Kim Huynh, Oz Shy Cash is the preferred method of payment for small value transactions generally less than $25. We provide insight to this finding with a new theoretical model that characterizes and compares consumers’ costs of paying with cash to paying with cards for each transaction. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): D, D0, D03, E, E4, E42
Uninsurable Investment Risks and Capital Income Taxation Staff Working Paper 2009-3 Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima This paper studies the capital accumulation and welfare implications of reducing capital income taxation in a general equilibrium economy with uninsurable investment risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E22, E6, E62, G, G3, G32, H, H2, H24, H25
Monetary Policy in Estimated Models of Small Open and Closed Economies Staff Working Paper 2003-27 Ali Dib The author develops and estimates a quantitative dynamic-optimizing model of a small open economy (SOE) with domestic and import price stickiness and capital-adjustment costs. A monetary policy rule allows the central bank to systematically manage the short-term nominal interest rate in response to deviations of inflation, output, and money growth from their steadystate levels. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, F, F2, F3