The impact of a central bank digital currency on payments at the point of sale Staff Analytical Note 2024-27 Walter Engert, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, André Stenzel We simulate the impact of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) on consumer adoption, merchant acceptance and use of different payment methods. Modest frictions that deter consumer adoption of a CBDC inhibit its market penetration. Minor pricing responses by financial institutions and payment service providers further reduce the impact of a CBDC. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14, L5, L52
Securitization under Asymmetric Information over the Business Cycle Staff Working Paper 2015-9 Martin Kuncl This paper studies the efficiency of financial intermediation through securitization in a model with heterogeneous investment projects and asymmetric information about the quality of securitized assets. I show that when retaining part of the risk, the issuer of securitized assets may credibly signal its quality. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G20
A Framework for Analyzing Monetary Policy in an Economy with E-money Staff Working Paper 2019-1 Yu Zhu, Scott Hendry This paper considers an economy where central-bank-issued fiat money competes with privately issued e-money. We study a policy-setting game between the central bank and the e-money issuer and find (1) the optimal monetary policy of the central bank depends on the policy of the private issuer and may deviate from the Friedman rule; (2) multiple equilibria may exist; (3) when the economy approaches a cashless state, the central bank’s optimal policy improves the market power of the e-money issuer and can lead to a discrete decrease in welfare and a discrete increase in inflation; and (4) first best cannot be achieved. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52
We Didn’t Start the Fire: Effects of a Natural Disaster on Consumers’ Financial Distress Staff Working Paper 2023-15 Anson T. Y. Ho, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez, Geneviève Vallée We use detailed consumer credit data to investigate the impact of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history, on consumers’ financial stress. We focus on the arrears of insured mortgages because of their important implications for financial institutions and insurers’ business risk and relevant management practices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D1, D12, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54
Modelling the Evolution of Credit Spreads in the United States Staff Working Paper 2004-45 Stuart Turnbull, Jun Yang The authors use Jarrow and Turnbull's (1995) reduced-form methodology to model the evolution of the term structure of interest rates in the United States for different credit classes and different industries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G13
The Rise of Non-Regulated Financial Intermediaries in the Housing Sector and its Macroeconomic Implications Staff Working Paper 2017-36 Hélène Desgagnés I examine the impact of non-regulated lenders in the mortgage market using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. My model features two types of financial intermediaries that differ in three ways: (i) only regulated intermediaries face a capital requirement, (ii) non-regulated intermediaries finance themselves by selling securities and cannot accept deposits, and (iii) non-regulated intermediaries face a more elastic demand. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E47, E6, E60, G, G2, G21, G23, G28
December 8, 2011 Strengthening Bank Management of Liquidity Risk: The Basel III Liquidity Standards Financial System Review - December 2011 Natasha Khan, Tamara Gomes Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Network Analysis and Canada's Large Value Transfer System Staff Discussion Paper 2009-13 Lana Embree, Tom Roberts Analysis of the characteristics and structure of a network of financial institutions can provide insight into the complex relationships and interdependencies that exist in a payment, clearing, and settlement system (PCSS), and allow an intuitive understanding of the PCSS's efficiency, stability, and resiliency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): D, D8, D85, G, G1, G10
Are There Canada-U.S. Differences in SME Financing? Staff Working Paper 2008-41 Danny Leung, Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima Previous surveys of Canadian and U.S. business owners suggest that access to financing in Canada may be more problematic than in the United States. Using the 2003 Survey of Small Business Financing in the United States and the 2004 Survey on Financing of Small and Medium Enterprises in Canada, this paper examines whether this perception can be better quantified. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, G, G2, G21
Parallel Tempering for DSGE Estimation Staff Working Paper 2024-13 Joshua Brault I develop a population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm known as parallel tempering to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. Parallel tempering approximates the posterior distribution of interest using a family of Markov chains with tempered posteriors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E10