Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts Staff working paper 2025-28 Kevin Moran, Dalibor Stevanovic, Stéphane Surprenant We produce forecasts for four risk scenarios to consider their usefulness for monitoring the Canadian economy. We find a high-oil-price scenario benefits the economy, a US recession induces a slowdown, a tight labor market leads to price increases, and a restrictive monetary policy scenario increases the unemployment rate while lowering the inflation rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, F44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
An Optimal Macroprudential Policy Mix for Segmented Credit Markets Staff working paper 2021-31 Jelena Zivanovic How can macroprudential policy and monetary policy stabilize segmented credit markets? Is there a trade-off between financial stability and price stability? I use a theoretical model to evaluate the performance of alternative policies and find the optimal mix of macroprudential and monetary policy in response to aggregate shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E4, E44, E5, E50 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Inflation Targeting and Liquidity Traps Under Endogenous Credibility Staff working paper 2019-9 Cars Hommes, Joep Lustenhouwer Policy implications are derived for an inflation-targeting central bank, whose credibility is endogenous and depends on its past ability to achieve its targets. This is done in a New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous and boundedly rational expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C62, E, E3, E32, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Demographic Origins of the Decline in Labor’s Share Staff working paper 2023-20 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short Declining labour market dynamism of workers results in an increasing wedge between their earnings and their marginal product as they age. This wedge and the demographic shift in the earnings shares of older workers can account for 59% of the decline in labor’s share of earnings in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D3, D33, E, E2, E25, J, J1, J3, J6, J62 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Debt-Relief Programs and Money Left on the Table: Evidence from Canada's Response to COVID-19 Staff working paper 2021-13 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Shaoteng Li, Nicolas Vincent During the COVID-19 pandemic, Canadian financial institutions offered debt-relief programs to help borrowers cope with job losses and economic insecurity. We consider the low take-up rates for these programs and suggest that to be effective, such programs must be visible and easy to use. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G3, G31, H, H5 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Potential output in Canada: 2026 assessment Staff analytical paper 2026-19 Alex Chernoff, Christopher Hajzler, Stéphanie Houle, Gabriella Ruggero, Olena Senyuta, Karanbir Sohal, Walter Steingress, Temel Taskin Growth in potential output is expected to drop from 2.3% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026 given slowing population growth, US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. It is then estimated to pick up to an average of 1.5% over 2027–29 as strengthening business and government investment supports trend labour productivity (TLP). Gradual adoption of artificial intelligence is also expected to lift TLP growth over the projection horizon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
How big is cash-futures basis trading in Canada’s government bond market? Staff analytical note 2024-16 Andreas Uthemann, Rishi Vala Cash-futures basis trading has grown alongside the Government of Canada bond futures market. We examine this growth over time in relation to Government of Canada bond and repurchase agreement markets and provide details on the type of market participants that engage in this type of trading activity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, D5, D53, G, G1, G12, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
The potential effect of a central bank digital currency on deposit funding in Canada Staff analytical note 2020-15 Alejandro García, Bena Lands, Xuezhi Liu, Joshua Slive A retail central bank digital currency denominated in Canadian dollars could, in theory, create competition for bank deposit funding. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E44, E5, G, G1, G10, G17, G2, G21, G3, G32, O Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
November 23, 2011 Renewing Canada’s Monetary Policy Framework Remarks Mark Carney Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal Montréal, Quebec Governor Mark Carney discusses the key elements of Canada’s inflation-targeting regime. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
May 15, 2014 Double Coincidence of Needs: Pension Funds and Financial Stability Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Pension Investment Association of Canada Québec, Québec Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses pension funds and financial stability. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks