December 3, 2009 Improving the Resilience of Core Funding Markets Financial System Review - December 2009 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jack Selody, Carolyn A. Wilkins Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Potential netting benefits from expanded central clearing in Canada’s fixed-income market Staff analytical note 2022-8 Jessie Ziqing Chen, Johannes Chen, Shamarthi Ghosh, Manu Pandey, Adrian Walton We assess whether more central clearing would enhance the resilience of Canadian fixed-income markets. Our analysis estimates the potential benefits of balance sheet netting under scenarios where central clearing is expanded to new participants. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G1, G12, G2, G21, G29 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
August 23, 2011 How People Think and How It Matters Remarks Jean Boivin Canadian Association for Business Economics Kingston, Ontario In his speech entitled “How People Think and How it Matters,” delivered to the Canadian Association for Business Economics, Deputy Governor Jean Boivin reviews various ways people form expectations and how these affect monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
CANVAS: A Canadian Behavioral Agent-Based Model Staff working paper 2022-51 Cars Hommes, Mario He, Sebastian Poledna, Melissa Siqueira, Yang Zhang The Bank of Canada’s current suite of models faces challenges in addressing network effects that integrate household and firm-level heterogeneity and their behaviours. We develop CANVAS, a Canadian behavioural agent-based model to contribute to the Bank’s next-generation modelling effort. CANVAS improves forecasting performance and expands capacity for model-based scenario analysis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, D, D2, D22, D8, D83, E, E1, E17 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Beating the “pros” with a semi-structural model of their own inflation forecasts Staff working paper 2026-11 Sergio A. Lago Alves, Waldyr Dutra Areosa, Carlos Viana de Carvalho How can Surveys of Professional Forecasters (SPF) be used to improve inflation forecasts? By using US historical quarterly data on SPF forecasts, we provide better understanding of how we can use forecast disagreement to improve our own forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C5, C53, E, E3, E31, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment Staff analytical note 2022-3 Guyllaume Faucher, Christopher Hajzler, Martin Kuncl, Dmitry Matveev, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Responding to the First Era of Globalization: Canadian Trade Policy, 1870–1913 Staff working paper 2018-42 Ian Keay, Patrick Alexander In this paper we document Canada’s trade policy response to late-nineteenth- and earlytwentieth-century globalization. We link newly digitized annual product-specific data on the value of Canadian imports and duties paid from 1870–1913 to establishment-specific production and location information drawn from the manuscripts of the 1871 industrial census. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F14, F4, F42, F6, F60, N, N7, N71 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey Staff working paper 2023-18 Carola Conces Binder, Rodrigo Sekkel We review the literature on central bank forecasting with a special focus on the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E47, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
July 5, 2021 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2021 This survey took place during the third wave of the COVID‑19 pandemic and coincided with the acceleration of vaccination efforts. Like the previous four surveys, this survey included questions on the impact of COVID‑19 and the measures to contain its spread. This survey also asked respondents how they are planning to use the extra savings they may have accumulated during the pandemic. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
Assessing the Impact of Demand Shocks on the US Term Premium Staff discussion paper 2018-7 Russell Barnett, Konrad Zmitrowicz During and after the Great Recession of 2008–09, conventional monetary policy in the United States and many other advanced economies was constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. Several central banks implemented large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs, more commonly known as quantitative easing or QE, to provide additional monetary stimulus. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation