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71 Results

The Mutable Geography of Firms’ International Trade

Staff Working Paper 2025-11 Lu Han
Exporters frequently change their market destinations. This paper introduces a new approach to identifying the drivers of these decisions over time. Analysis of customs data from China and the UK shows most changes are driven by demand rather than supply-related shocks.

Risk, Entropy, and the Transformation of Distributions

Staff Working Paper 2002-11 Mark Reesor, Don McLeish
The exponential family, relative entropy, and distortion are methods of transforming probability distributions. We establish a link between those methods, focusing on the relation between relative entropy and distortion.

Fiscal Spillovers: The Case of US Corporate and Personal Income Taxes

Staff Working Paper 2021-41 Madeline Hanson, Daniela Hauser, Romanos Priftis
How do changes to personal and corporate income tax rates in the United States affect its trading partners? Spillover effects from cuts in the two taxes differ. They are generally small and negative for corporate taxes, but sizable and positive for personal income taxes.

ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis

ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution.
January 29, 1998

Annual Report 1997

With inflation remaining low for the sixth consecutive year, the Canadian economy recorded a strong expansion of about 4 per cent through 1997.
Content Type(s): Publications, Annual Report

Allocative Efficiency and the Productivity Slowdown

Staff Working Paper 2021-1 Lin Shao, Rongsheng Tang
In our analysis of the US productivity slowdown in the 1970s and 2000s, we find that a significant portion of this deceleration can be attributed to a lack of improvement in allocative efficiency across sectors. Our analysis further identifies increased sector-level volatility as a major contributor to this lack of improvement in allocative efficiency.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, O, O4, O47

Cyber Risk and Security Investment

Staff Working Paper 2022-32 Toni Ahnert, Michael Brolley, David Cimon, Ryan Riordan
We develop a principal-agent model of cyber-attacking with fee-paying clients who delegate security decisions to financial platforms. We derive testable implications about clients’ vulnerability to cyber attacks and about the fees charged.
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