Macroprudential Policy with Capital Buffers Staff Working Paper 2019-8 Josef Schroth The countercyclical capital buffer is part of Basel III, the set of regulatory measures developed in response to the financial crisis of 2007–09. This study focuses on how time-varying capital buffers can address inefficiencies in economies with endogenous financial crises. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Credit risk management, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Lender of last resort JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, E4, E44
Inequality in Parental Transfers, Borrowing Constraints and Optimal Higher Education Subsidies Staff Working Paper 2019-7 Youngmin Park This paper studies optimal education subsidies when parental transfers are unequally distributed across students and cannot be publicly observed. After documenting substantial inequality in parental transfers among US college students with similar family resources, I examine its implications for how the education subsidy should vary with schooling level and family resources to minimize inefficiencies generated by borrowing constraints. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, D6, D61, D64, D8, D82, I, I2, I22, J, J2, J24
The Distributional Effects of Conventional Monetary Policy and Quantitative Easing: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model Staff Working Paper 2019-6 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel This paper compares the distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing (QE) within an estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41
Corporate Debt Composition and Business Cycles Staff Working Paper 2019-5 Jelena Zivanovic Based on empirical evidence, I propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two financial sectors to analyze the role of corporate debt composition (bank versus bond financing) in the transmission of economic shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44
Frictional Capital Reallocation I: Ex Ante Heterogeneity Staff Working Paper 2019-4 Randall Wright, Sylvia Xiaolin Xiao, Yu Zhu This paper studies dynamic general equilibrium models where firms trade capital in frictional markets. Gains from trade arise due to ex ante heterogeneity: some firms are better at investment, so they build capital in the primary market; others acquire it in the secondary market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E4, E44
Can Capital Deepening Explain the Global Decline in Labor’s Share? Staff Working Paper 2019-3 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short We estimate an aggregate elasticity of substitution between capital and labor near or below one, which implies that capital deepening cannot explain the global decline in labor's share. Our methodology derives from transition paths in the neo-classical growth model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E22, E25, J, J3
The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: An ICT Phenomenon? Staff Working Paper 2019-2 Jeffrey Mollins, Pierre St-Amant We ask whether a weaker contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to productivity growth could account for the productivity slowdown observed in Canada since the early 2000s. To answer this question, we consider several methods capturing channels through which ICT could affect aggregate productivity growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, O, O4, O41, O47
A Framework for Analyzing Monetary Policy in an Economy with E-money Staff Working Paper 2019-1 Yu Zhu, Scott Hendry This paper considers an economy where central-bank-issued fiat money competes with privately issued e-money. We study a policy-setting game between the central bank and the e-money issuer and find (1) the optimal monetary policy of the central bank depends on the policy of the private issuer and may deviate from the Friedman rule; (2) multiple equilibria may exist; (3) when the economy approaches a cashless state, the central bank’s optimal policy improves the market power of the e-money issuer and can lead to a discrete decrease in welfare and a discrete increase in inflation; and (4) first best cannot be achieved. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52
Limited Commitment, Endogenous Credibility and the Challenges of Price-level Targeting Staff Working Paper 2018-61 Gino Cateau, Malik Shukayev This paper studies the cost of limited commitment when a central bank has the discretion to adjust policy whenever the costs of honoring its past commitments become high. Specifically, we consider a central bank that seeks to implement optimal policy in a New Keynesian model by committing to a price-level target path. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
Inference in Games Without Nash Equilibrium: An Application to Restaurants’ Competition in Opening Hours Staff Working Paper 2018-60 Erhao Xie This paper relaxes the Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE) assumption commonly imposed in empirical discrete choice games with incomplete information. Instead of assuming that players have unbiased/correct expectations, my model treats a player’s belief about the behavior of other players as an unrestricted unknown function. I study the joint identification of belief and payoff functions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C5, C57, L, L1, L13, L8, L85