Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters Staff working paper 2016-5 Soojin Jo, Rodrigo Sekkel We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of different economic indicators. Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a real-time subjective measure of uncertainty in a simple framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
To Share or Not to Share? Uncovered Losses in a Derivatives Clearinghouse Staff working paper 2016-4 Radoslav Raykov This paper studies how the allocation of residual losses affects trading and welfare in a central counterparty. I compare loss sharing under two loss-allocation mechanisms – variation margin haircutting and cash calls – and study the privately and socially optimal degree of loss sharing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G19, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Monetary Commitment and the Level of Public Debt Staff working paper 2016-3 Stefano Gnocchi, Luisa Lambertini We analyze the interaction between committed monetary policy and discretionary fiscal policy in a model with public debt, endogenous government expenditures, distortive taxation and nominal rigidities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Fiscal policy, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
The Role of the International Monetary Fund in the Post-Crisis World Staff discussion paper 2016-6 Mark Kruger, Robert Lavigne, Julie McKay The International Monetary Fund (IMF, or the Fund) has undergone a number of significant policy changes and reforms in the wake of the global financial crisis. Most notably, in December 2015, the United States approved long-delayed legislation to increase the representation of developing countries in the Fund’s governance structure. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment? Staff discussion paper 2016-5 Maxime Leboeuf, Robert Fay The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, D84, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Limits to Arbitrage and Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity Staff discussion paper 2016-4 James Pinnington, Maral Shamloo We document an increase in deviations from short-term covered interest rate parity (CIP) in the first half of 2015. Since the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) decision to abandon its minimum exchange rate policy, both the magnitude and volatility of deviations from CIP have increased across several currency pairs. The effect is particularly pronounced for pairs involving the Swiss franc. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning
New Housing Registrations as a Leading Indicator of the BC Economy Staff discussion paper 2016-3 Calista Cheung, Dmitry Granovsky Housing starts and building permits data are commonly used as leading indicators of economic activity. In British Columbia, all new homes must be registered with the Homeowner Protection Office, a branch of BC Housing, before the issuance of building permits and the start of construction. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Housing, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E37 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
January 31, 2016 Research Update - January 2016 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
Agency Costs, Risk Shocks and International Cycles Staff working paper 2016-2 Marc-André Letendre, Joel Wagner We add agency costs as in Carlstrom and Fuerst (1997) into a two-country, two-good international business-cycle model. In our model, changes in the relative price of investment arise endogenously. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E4, E44, F, F4, F44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Reconciling the Differences in Aggregate U.S. Wage Series Staff working paper 2016-1 Julien Champagne, André Kurmann, Jay Stewart Average hourly real wage series from the Labor Productivity and Costs (LPC) program and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program have evolved very differently over the past decades. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E0, E01, E2, E24, E3, E30, J, J3, J30 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting