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278
result(s)
Could a Higher Inflation Target Enhance Macroeconomic Stability?
Staff Working Paper 2018-17
José Dorich,
Nicholas Labelle,
Vadym Lepetyuk,
Rhys R. Mendes
Recent international experience with the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates has rekindled interest in the benefits of inflation targets above 2 per cent. We evaluate whether an increase in the inflation target to 3 or 4 per cent could improve macroeconomic stability in the Canadian economy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E37,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52
State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models
Staff Working Paper 2018-14
Luis Uzeda
Implications for signal extraction from specifying unobserved components (UC) models with correlated or orthogonal innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state correlation structures are less well understood.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
C15,
C5,
C51,
C53
Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation
Staff Working Paper 2018-10
Lise Pichette,
Marie-Noëlle Robitaille,
Mohanad Salameh,
Pierre St-Amant
We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed measures based on models incorporating many variables as inputs (and therefore requiring real-time data for many variables).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
Potential output
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
E,
E3,
E37
Non-linéarité de la courbe de Phillips : un survol de la littérature
Staff Analytical Note 2018-3
Renaud St-Cyr
The paper reviews evidence from the economic literature on the nature of the relationship between excess capacity and inflation, better known as the Phillips curve. In particular, we examine the linearity of this relationship. This is an important issue in the current economic context in which advanced economies are approaching or exceed their potential output.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E32
How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?
Staff Working Paper 2018-2
Monica Jain,
Christopher S. Sutherland
We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy communications,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D83,
E,
E3,
E37,
E5,
E52,
E58
Understanding the Time Variation in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices
Staff Discussion Paper 2017-12
Rose Cunningham,
Min Jae Kim,
Christian Friedrich,
Kristina Hess
In this paper, we analyze the presence of time variation in the pass-through from the nominal effective exchange rate to import prices for 24 advanced economies over the period 1995–2015. In line with earlier studies in the literature, we find substantial heterogeneity in the level of exchange rate pass-through across countries.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates,
Inflation and prices,
International topics,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
F,
F3,
F31,
F4,
F41
Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature
Staff Analytical Note 2017-20
Karyne B. Charbonneau,
Alexa Evans,
Subrata Sarker,
Lena Suchanek
In the past few years, many have postulated that the possible disinflationary effects of digitalization could explain the subdued inflation in advanced economies. In this note, we review the evidence found in the literature. We look at three main channels.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Market structure and pricing,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D22,
E,
E3,
E31,
L,
L8,
L81,
O,
O3,
O33
Digital Transformation in the Service Sector: Insights from Consultations with Firms in Wholesale, Retail and Logistics
Staff Analytical Note 2017-19
Wei Dong,
James Fudurich,
Lena Suchanek
Firms increasingly rely on digital technologies such as e-commerce, cloud computing, big data, digital tracking and digital platforms that are reshaping business operations, business models and market structures. In this context, the Bank of Canada consulted with firms in wholesale, retail and logistics, as well as with related industry associations to yield insights on the adoption of digital technologies.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Inflation and prices,
Service sector
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D22,
E,
E3,
E31,
L,
L8,
L81,
L9,
L92,
O,
O3,
O33
Alternative Scenario to the October 2017 MPR Base-Case Projection: Higher Potential Growth
Staff Analytical Note 2017-18
Jing Yang,
Ben Tomlin,
Olivier Gervais
We construct an alternative scenario in which trend labour input and business investment are stronger than that expected in the Bank of Canada’s base-case projection in the October 2017 Monetary Policy Report.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy,
Potential output
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E22,
E24,
E27,
E5