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536
result(s)
What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada?
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-13
Marc-André Gosselin,
Temel Taskin
We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Domestic demand and components,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
Potential output
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C3,
E,
E3,
E5
Monetary Policy Transmission, Bank Market Power, and Wholesale Funding Reliance
Staff Working Paper 2023-35
Amina Enkhbold
I study how banking market concentration and reliance on wholesale funding affect monetary policy transmission to mortgage rates. I find that this transmission is imperfect and dampens the response of consumption, output, and housing prices.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy transmission,
Wholesale funding
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E52,
G,
G2,
G21
Unpacking Moving: A Quantitative Spatial Equilibrium Model with Wealth
Staff Working Paper 2023-34
Elisa Giannone,
Qi Li,
Nuno Paixao,
Xinle Pang
We propose a model to understand low observed migration rates by considering the interaction between location and wealth decisions. We look at different policies and find that temporary moving vouchers only slightly increase welfare, while lower housing regulations can decrease the welfare gap by lowering house prices nationwide.
A Review of the Bank of Canada’s Support of Key Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-9
Joshua Fernandes,
Michael Mueller
The COVID-19 pandemic placed unprecedented strain on the global financial system. We describe how the Bank of Canada responded to the rapidly deteriorating liquidity in core Canadian fixed-income markets.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E58,
G,
G0,
G01
The Impact of Unemployment Insurance and Unsecured Credit on Business Cycles
Staff Working Paper 2023-22
Michael Irwin
This paper studies how unsecured consumer credit impacts the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) policies smooth aggregate consumption fluctuations over the business cycle. Using a general equilibrium real business cycle model, I find that unsecured credit amplifies the extent to which UI smooths cyclical consumption fluctuations.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Credit and credit aggregates,
Economic models,
Fiscal policy,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E24,
E3,
E32,
E4,
E44,
E6,
E62
Turning Words into Numbers: Measuring News Media Coverage of Shortages
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-8
Lin Chen,
Stephanie Houle
We develop high-frequency, news-based indicators using natural language processing methods to analyze news media texts. Our indicators track both supply (raw, intermediate and final goods) and labour shortages over time. They also provide weekly time-varying topic narratives about various types of shortages.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Econometric and statistical methods,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C55,
C8,
C82,
E,
E3,
E37
Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey
Staff Working Paper 2023-18
Carola Conces Binder,
Rodrigo Sekkel
We review the literature on central bank forecasting with a special focus on the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E47,
E5,
E52,
E58
We Didn’t Start the Fire: Effects of a Natural Disaster on Consumers’ Financial Distress
Staff Working Paper 2023-15
Anson T. Y. Ho,
Kim Huynh,
David T. Jacho-Chávez,
Geneviève Vallée
We use detailed consumer credit data to investigate the impact of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history, on consumers’ financial stress. We focus on the arrears of insured mortgages because of their important implications for financial institutions and insurers’ business risk and relevant management practices.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Climate change,
Credit and credit aggregates,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C21,
D,
D1,
D12,
G,
G2,
G21,
Q,
Q5,
Q54
The Role of Intermediaries in Selection Markets: Evidence from Mortgage Lending
Staff Working Paper 2023-12
Jason Allen,
Robert Clark,
Jean-François Houde,
Shaoteng Li,
Anna Trubnikova
This paper looks at the role mortgage brokers play in helping borrowers generate quotes and qualify for credit. We find that, on average, borrowers that engage with a mortgage broker pay lower interest rates. However, in about 15% of cases, borrowers are steered towards longer amortizing mortgages than they would have chosen absent a broker. Since mortgages with longer amortization have higher total interest costs over the entire life of the mortgage, this steering is expensive.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial services,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
G,
G2,
G21,
L,
L2