Bio

Christopher Hajzler is the director of the Canadian Economic Studies Division at the Bank of Canada, where his team is responsible for analyzing long term labour market trends and Canadian potential output growth. His primary research interests include the study of the effects of political risk on international capital flows, expropriation of foreign direct investments, and Law-of-One-Price deviations within and across countries. Prior to joining the Bank of Canada in 2014, he obtained a PhD in Economics from the University of Western Ontario, and was Assistant Professor at the University of Otago, New Zealand.

Research Field(s): Growth and Development International Macroeconomics Macroeconomics

Staff research

Potential output in Canada: 2025 assessment

Staff analytical note 2025-14 Selam Abraham, Dany Brouillette, Alex Chernoff, Christopher Hajzler, Stéphanie Houle, Mark Kim, Temel Taskin
We explore two scenarios for potential output growth to gain insights into the economic consequences associated with different possible trade policies. Scenario 1 includes limited US tariffs on Canadian exports. Scenario 2 adds a permanent, broad-based 25% increase in US tariffs on imports from all countries excluding Canada and Mexico.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity

Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment

Staff analytical note 2024-11 Tessa Devakos, Christopher Hajzler, Stéphanie Houle, Craig Johnston, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Ron Rautu, Temel Taskin
We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity

Digitalization: Implications for Monetary Policy

Staff discussion paper 2023-18 Vivian Chu, Tatjana Dahlhaus, Christopher Hajzler, Pierre-Yves Yanni
We explore the implications of digitalization for monetary policy, both in terms of how monetary policy affects the economy and in terms of data analysis and communication with the public.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C4, C8, E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment

Staff analytical note 2023-6 Julien Champagne, Christopher Hajzler, Dmitry Matveev, Harlee Melinchuk, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Galip Kemal Ozhan, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin
We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment

Staff analytical note 2022-3 Guyllaume Faucher, Christopher Hajzler, Martin Kuncl, Dmitry Matveev, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin
We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply

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Bank publications

Bank of Canada Review articles

November 17, 2016

Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Emerging-Market Economies

Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2016 Jeannine Bailliu, Christopher Hajzler
Growth has slowed in many emerging-market economies (EMEs) since the 2007–09 global financial crisis, reflecting both cyclical and structural factors. In this context, it will be in-creasingly important for EMEs to raise potential growth by maintaining steady progress on structural reforms. How do structural reforms generally support growth? What are the re-form priorities for EMEs over recent history and today? Finally, what will be the impact of planned structural reforms on potential output growth among the world’s larger EMEs? These are some of the questions considered by the authors.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E6, E61, E65, O, O1, O11, O4, O41

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Journal publications

Refereed journals

  • "Expropriation risk and FDI in developing countries: Does return of capital dominate return on capital?,"
    (with M. Akhtaruzzaman & N. Berg), European Journal of Political Economy. (Forthcoming.)
  • "Does institutional quality resolve the Lucas Paradox?,"
    (with M. Akhtaruzzaman & D. Owen), Applied Economics. (Forthcoming.)
  • "Distance, Language, Religion, and the Law of One Price: Evidence from Canada and Nigeria,"
    (with D. Fielding& J. MacGee), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 47(5): 1007–1029, 2016.
  • "Relative Price and Inflation Variability in a Simple Consumer Search Model,"
    (with D. Fielding), Economics Letters, 123 (1): 17–22, 2014.
  • "Resource-Based FDI and Expropriation in Developing Economies," Journal of International Economics, 92 (1): 124–146, 2014.
  • "Expropriation of Foreign Direct Investments: Sectoral Patterns from 1993 to 2006," Review of World Economics/Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 148(1): 119–149, 2012.