R2 - Household Analysis

• Fundamental Drivers of Existing Home Sales in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2018-16 Taylor Webley

  Existing home sales’ share of Canada’s economic pie has been rising in recent years, and variation around this trend has resulted in outsized contributions to changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). In this context, we use a cointegration framework to estimate the level of resale activity across the Canadian provinces that is supported by fundamentals—namely, full-time employment, housing affordability and migration flows—to help look through the volatility.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C23, E, E2, E27, R, R2, R21

• Housing Price Network Effects from Public Transit Investment: Evidence from Vancouver

  Staff Working Paper 2018-18 Alex Chernoff, Andrea Craig

  In this paper, we estimate the effect on housing prices of the expansion of the Vancouver SkyTrain rapid transit network during the period 2001–11. We extend the canonical residential sorting equilibrium framework to include commuting time in the household utility function.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Economic models, Housing JEL Code(s): H, H4, H41, R, R2, R21, R4, R41

• Housing and Tax-Deferred Retirement Accounts

  Staff Working Paper 2016-24 Anson T. Y. Ho, Jie Zhou

  Assets in tax-deferred retirement accounts (TDA) and housing are two major components of household portfolios. In this paper, we develop a life-cycle model to examine the interaction between households’ use of TDA and their housing decisions.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Economic models, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, D, D1, D14, D9, D91, E, E2, E21, H, H2, H24, R, R2, R21

• Canadian Labour Market Dispersion: Mind the (Shrinking) Gap

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-3 David Amirault, Naveen Rai

  Shocks to a currency area can and often do have asymmetric impacts on its regions that, in the absence of perfect labour mobility, lead to gaps in relative labour market performance. Witness, for example, the effects of the 2008/09 recession and subsequent financial crisis in Europe on the dispersion of employment rates across the euro area – and to a lesser extent the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J0, J01, R, R2, R23

• Credit Conditions and Consumption, House Prices and Debt: What Makes Canada Different?

  Staff Working Paper 2015-40 John Muellbauer, Pierre St-Amant, David Williams

  There is widespread agreement that, in the United States, higher house prices raise consumption via collateral or possibly wealth effects. The presence of similar channels in Canada would have important implications for monetary policy transmission.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, Financial Institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Transmission of monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G2, G21, R, R2, R21, R3, R31

• On the Welfare Cost of Rare Housing Disasters

  Staff Working Paper 2015-26 Shaofeng Xu

  This paper examines the welfare cost of rare housing disasters characterized by large drops in house prices. I construct an overlapping generations general equilibrium model with recursive preferences and housing disaster shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Economic models, Housing JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G1, G11, R, R2, R21

• International House Price Cycles, Monetary Policy and Risk Premiums

  Staff Working Paper 2014-54 Gregory Bauer

  Using a panel logit framework, the paper provides an estimate of the likelihood of a house price correction in 18 OECD countries. The analysis shows that a simple measure of the degree of house price overvaluation contains a lot of information about subsequent price reversals.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C2, E, E4, E43, R, R2, R21
• May 16, 2013

  Explaining Canada’s Regional Migration Patterns

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2013 David Amirault, Daniel de Munnik, Sarah Miller

  Understanding the factors that determine the migration of labour between regions is crucial for assessing the economy’s response to macroeconomic shocks and identifying policies that will encourage an efficient reallocation of labour. By examining the determinants of migration within Canada from 1991 to 2006, this article provides evidence that regional differences in employment rates and household incomes tend to increase labour migration, and that provincial borders and language differences are barriers to migration.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J6, J61, R, R2, R23

• An Equilibrium Analysis of the Rise in House Prices and Mortgage Debt

  Staff Working Paper 2013-9 Shaofeng Xu

  This paper examines the contributions of population aging, mortgage innovation and historically low interest rates to the sharp rise in U.S. house prices and mortgage debt between 1994 and 2005.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G1, G11, R, R2, R21

• What Drags and Drives Mobility: Explaining Canada’s Aggregate Migration Patterns

  Staff Working Paper 2012-28 David Amirault, Daniel de Munnik, Sarah Miller

  Using census data at the economic region level from 1991 to 2006 and a gravity model framework, this paper examines the factors that influence migration within Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J6, J61, R, R2, R23