F44 - International Business Cycles

• Fiscal Spillovers: The Case of US Corporate and Personal Income Taxes

  Staff Working Paper 2021-41 Madeline Hanson, Daniela Hauser, Romanos Priftis

  How do changes to personal and corporate income tax rates in the United States affect its trading partners? Spillover effects from cuts in the two taxes differ. They are generally small and negative for corporate taxes, but sizable and positive for personal income taxes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rate regimes, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, F, F4, F44, H, H2, H20

• The Anatomy of Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations

  Staff Working Paper 2021-33 Sushant Acharya, Jess Benhabib, Zhen Huo

  We show that changes in sentiment that aren’t related to fundamentals can drive persistent macroeconomic fluctuations even when all economic agents are rational. Changes in sentiment can also affect how fundamental shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E3, E32, F, F4, F44

• The Extensive Margin of Trade and Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2018-37 Yuko Imura, Malik Shukayev

  This paper studies the effects of monetary policy shocks on firms’ participation in exporting. We develop a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which heterogeneous firms make forward-looking decisions on whether to participate in the export market and prices are staggered across firms and time.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Firm dynamics, International topics, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F12, F4, F44

• Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities

  Staff Working Paper 2018-4 Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou

  It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic activity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F4, F44, Q, Q1, Q11, Q3, Q31, Q4, Q41, Q43

• Understanding the Cross‐Country Effects of US Technology Shocks

  Staff Working Paper 2017-23 Thuy Lan Nguyen, Wataru Miyamoto

  Business cycles are substantially correlated across countries. Yet most existing models are not able to generate substantial transmission through international trade. We show that the nature of such transmission depends fundamentally on the features determining the responsiveness of labor supply and labor demand to international relative prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, F, F4, F41, F44, F6, F62

• Business Cycles in Small, Open Economies: Evidence from Panel Data Between 1900 and 2013

  Staff Working Paper 2016-48 Thuy Lan Nguyen, Wataru Miyamoto

  Using a novel data set for 17 countries dating from 1900 to 2013, we characterize business cycles in both small developed and developing countries in a model with financial frictions and a common shock structure. We estimate the model jointly for these 17 countries using Bayesian methods.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, F44

• Agency Costs, Risk Shocks and International Cycles

  Staff Working Paper 2016-2 Marc-André Letendre, Joel Wagner

  We add agency costs as in Carlstrom and Fuerst (1997) into a two-country, two-good international business-cycle model. In our model, changes in the relative price of investment arise endogenously.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E4, E44, F, F4, F44

• International Transmission of Credit Shocks in an Equilibrium Model with Production Heterogeneity

  Staff Working Paper 2015-19 Yuko Imura, Julia Thomas

  Many policy-makers and researchers view the recent financial and real economic crises across North America, Europe and beyond as a global phenomenon. Some have argued that this global recession has a common source: the U.S. financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E4, E44, F, F4, F41, F44

• International Transmission Channels of U.S. Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2014-43 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Abeer Reza, Kristina Hess

  The U.S. Federal Reserve responded to the great recession by reducing policy rates to the effective lower bound. In order to provide further monetary stimulus, they subsequently conducted large-scale asset purchases, quadrupling their balance sheet in the process.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E5, E52, E58, F, F4, F42, F44

• Endogenous Trade Participation with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through

  Staff Working Paper 2013-30 Yuko Imura

  This paper investigates the implications of endogenous trade participation for international business cycles, trade flow dynamics and exchange rate pass-through when price adjustments are staggered across firms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F4, F44