E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• Innovation and Growth with Financial, and Other, Frictions

  Staff Working Paper 2011-25 Jonathan Chiu, Césaire Meh, Randall Wright

  The generation and implementation of ideas, or knowledge, is crucial for economic performance. We study this process in a model of endogenous growth with frictions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E4, G, G2, O, O3, O4

• How Do You Pay? The Role of Incentives at the Point-of-Sale

  Staff Working Paper 2011-23 Carlos Arango, Kim Huynh, Leonard Sabetti

  This paper uses discrete-choice models to quantify the role of consumer socioeconomic characteristics, payment instrument attributes, and transaction features on the probability of using cash, debit card, or credit card at the point-of-sale.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, C8, C83, E, E4, E41

• Money and Price Posting under Private Information

  Staff Working Paper 2011-22 Mei Dong, Janet Hua Jiang

  We study price posting with undirected search in a search-theoretic monetary model with divisible money and divisible goods. Ex ante homogeneous buyers experience match specific preference shocks in bilateral trades. The shocks follow a continuous distribution and the realization of the shocks is private information.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83, E, E3, E31

• Price-Level Targeting and Inflation Expectations: Experimental Evidence

  Staff Working Paper 2011-18 Robert Amano, Jim Engle-Warnick, Malik Shukayev

  In this paper, we use an economics decision-making experiment to test a key assumption underpinning the efficacy of price-level targeting relative to inflation targeting for business cycle stabilization and mitigating the effects of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52

• Analyzing Default Risk and Liquidity Demand during a Financial Crisis: The Case of Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2011-17 Jason Allen, Ali Hortaçsu, Jakub Kastl

  This paper explores the reliability of using prices of credit default swap contracts (CDS) as indicators of default probabilities during the 2007/2008 financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, G, G0, G01, G2, G28

• Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil

  Staff Working Paper 2011-16 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian

  We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43

• The Behaviour of Consumer Prices Across Provinces

  Staff Discussion Paper 2011-2 Gordon Wilkinson

  Measures of core inflation enable a central bank to distinguish price movements that are transitory and generated by non-monetary events from those that are more permanent and related to prior monetary policy decisions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

• Financial Factors and Labour Market Fluctuations

  Staff Working Paper 2011-12 Yahong Zhang

  What are the effects of financial market imperfections on unemployment and vacancies? Since standard DSGE models do not typically model unemployment, they abstract from this issue.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, J, J6

• Mixed Frequency Forecasts for Chinese GDP

  Staff Working Paper 2011-11 Philipp Maier

  We evaluate different approaches for using monthly indicators to predict Chinese GDP for the current and the next quarter (‘nowcasts’ and ‘forecasts’, respectively). We use three types of mixed-frequency models, one based on an economic activity indicator (Liu et al., 2007), one based on averaging over indicator models (Stock and Watson, 2004), and a static factor model (Stock and Watson, 2002).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47

• Sovereign Default Risk Premia, Fiscal Limits and Fiscal Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2011-10 Huixin Bi

  We develop a closed economy model to study the interactions among sovereign risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy. The stochastic fiscal limits, which measure the ability and willingness of the government to service its debt, arise endogenously from a dynamic Laffer curve.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62, H, H3, H30, H6, H60