Inflation dynamics and pressures

• Deriving Longer-Term Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premium Measures for Canada

  Staff discussion paper 2024-9 Bruno Feunou, Zabi Tarshi

  We present two models for long-term inflation expectations and inflation risk premiums for Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, E, E4, E43, E47, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission

• The Output-Inflation Trade-off in Canada

  Staff discussion paper 2024-7 Stefano Gnocchi, Fanny McKellips, Rodrigo Sekkel, Laure Simon, Yinxi Xie, Yang Zhang

  We explain how the Bank of Canada’s policy models capture the trade-off between output and inflation in Canada. We provide new estimates of the trade-off and contrast them with those in the Bank’s macroeconomic models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission

• Sources of pandemic-era inflation in Canada: An application of the Bernanke and Blanchard model

  Staff analytical note 2024-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean Garry Junior Roc, Yang Zhang

  We explore the drivers of the surge in inflation in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work is part of a joint effort by 11 central banks using the model developed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to identify similarities and differences across economies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, E37, E5, E52, E6 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting

• Assessing the Impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchases

  Staff discussion paper 2024-5 Chinara Azizova, Jonathan Witmer, Xu Zhang

  In March 2020, the Bank of Canada implemented the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program, eventually purchasing approximately $340 billion of government bonds. In this paper, we analyze the impact of this program on financial market prices and yields as well as on GDP and inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting

• Markups and Inflation in Oligopolistic Markets: Evidence from Wholesale Price Data

  Staff working paper 2024-20 Patrick Alexander, Lu Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Ben Tomlin

  We study how the interaction of market power and nominal price rigidity influences inflation dynamics. We find that pass-through declines with price stickiness when markets are concentrated, which implies a lower slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L13, L8, L81 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures

• Survey of Indigenous Firms: A Snapshot of Wages, Prices and Financing in the Indigenous Business Sector in Canada

  Staff discussion paper 2024-4 Calista Cheung, James Fudurich, Janki Shah, Farrukh Suvankulov

  What sources of financing do Indigenous-owned businesses in Canada use, and what are their expectations about prices, wages and inflation? We find Indigenous-owned firms are significantly less reliant on financial institutions as sources of financing compared with non-Indigenous firms. We also find Indigenous-owned firms have higher inflation expectations and weaker wage-growth expectations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D0, G, G3, G38, J, J1, J15 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply

• Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals

  Staff working paper 2024-14 Olena Kostyshyna, Tolga Özden, Yang Zhang

  We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral occurring in Canada over history. We find the risk of a wage-price spiral increases when the inflation expectations become unanchored and the credibility of central banks declines.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E0, E00, E4, E47, E7 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission

• Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update

  Staff analytical note 2024-8 Erik Ens, Alexander Lam, Kurt See, Gabriela Galassi

  We assess the health of the Canadian labour market. We find that it has seen gradual but material easing since 2023, amid some signs of structural changes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, J, J2, J3, J6 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply

• Pricing behaviour and inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from consumer prices microdata

  Staff analytical note 2024-6 Olga Bilyk, Mikael Khan, Olena Kostyshyna

  Using the microdata underlying the Canadian consumer price index, we study how often and by how much firms changed their prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the surge in inflation was mainly associated with retailers raising prices much more often than before. We also find that more recently, corporate price-setting behaviour appears to be approaching pre-pandemic norms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L11 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting

• How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty

  Staff working paper 2024-5 Tao Wang

  The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E7, E71 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission