Labour markets

• February 8, 2018

  At the Crossroads: Innovation and Inclusive Growth

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins G7 Symposium on Innovation and Inclusive Growth Montebello, Quebec

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses technological progress and how policy-makers can harness it for economic growth that benefits everyone.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, International topics, Labour markets, Market structure and pricing, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments

• Wages: Measurement and Key Drivers

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-2 Dany Brouillette, Jonathan Lachaine, Benoit Vincent

  Available sources of hourly wage data in Canada sometimes send conflicting signals about wage growth. This note thus has two objectives: first, we develop a wage measure—the wage-common—to better capture the (underlying) wage pressures reflecting the common trend across the available data sources. Second, we re-examine the relationship between wage growth and macro drivers (labour market slack and labour productivity).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, J, J3

• The Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases on the Canadian Economy

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-26 Dany Brouillette, Daniel Gao, Olivier Gervais, Calista Cheung

  This note reviews the channels through which scheduled minimum wage increases over the coming years may affect Canadian economic activity and inflation and assesses their macroeconomic impacts. From reduced-form estimates of direct minimum wage pass-through, we find that consumer price index (CPI) inflation could be boosted by about 0.1 percentage point (pp) on average in 2018.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J22, J23

• The Evolution of Unobserved Skill Returns in the U.S.: A New Approach Using Panel Data

  Staff Working Paper 2017-61 Lance Lochner, Youngmin Park, Youngki Shin

  Economists disagree about the factors driving the substantial increase in residual wage inequality in the United States over the past few decades. To identify changes in the returns to unobserved skills, we make a novel assumption about the dynamics of skills (especially among older workers) rather than about the stability of skill distributions across cohorts, as is standard.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, J, J2, J24, J3, J31
• November 7, 2017

  Understanding Inflation: Getting Back to Basics

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz CFA Montréal and Montreal Council on Foreign Relations Montréal, Quebec

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how recent weak inflation in Canada and other economies can be explained by fundamental factors.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation

• Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Canada: Evidence Against a “Greasing Effect”

  Staff Working Paper 2017-31 Joel Wagner

  The existence of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) has often been used to justify a positive inflation target. It is traditionally assumed that positive inflation could “grease the wheels” of the labour market by putting downward pressure on real wages, easing labour market adjustments during a recession.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E5, E52
• July 12, 2017

  Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz, Carolyn A. Wilkins Ottawa, Ontario

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments

• Labour Force Participation: A Comparison of the United States and Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-9 James Ketcheson, Natalia Kyui, Benoit Vincent

  This note explores the drivers behind the recent increase in the US participation rate in the labour market and assesses the likelihood of a similar gain in Canada. The growth in the US participation rate has largely been due to a pickup in the participation of prime-age workers following a post-recession decline.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21

• Wage Growth in Canada and the United States: Factors Behind Recent Weakness

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-8 Dany Brouillette, James Ketcheson, Olena Kostyshyna, Jonathan Lachaine

  This note examines the relatively subdued pace of wage growth in Canada since the commodity price decline in 2014 and assesses whether the weakness is attributable to cyclical (e.g., labour market slack) or structural factors (e.g., resource reallocation and demographic change).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J3, J30
• June 12, 2017

  Canadian Economic Update: Strength in Diversity

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins The Associates of the Asper School of Business Winnipeg, Manitoba

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about encouraging signs that growth is broadening across Canada’s regions and sectors.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Sectoral balance sheet