Labour markets

• September 27, 2018

  Technological Disruption and Opportunity

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Atlantic Provinces Economics Council and Greater Moncton Chamber of Commerce Moncton, New Brunswick

  Governor Poloz talks about how new digital technologies create opportunities in the economy and affect how the Bank conducts monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity

• Reconciling Jaimovich-Rebelo Preferences, Habit in Consumption and Labor Supply

  Staff Working Paper 2018-26 Tom D. Holden, Paul Levine, Jonathan Swarbrick

  This note studies a form of a utility function of consumption with habit and leisure that (a) is compatible with long-run balanced growth, (b) hits a steady-state observed target for hours worked and (c) is consistent with micro-econometric evidence for the inter-temporal elasticity of substitution and the Frisch elasticity of labor supply.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24
• May 31, 2018

  A Progress Report on the Economy

  Remarks Sylvain Leduc Association des économistes québécois and CFA Québec Québec, Québec

  Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc discusses the issues that led Governing Council to hold the policy interest rate at 1.25 per cent in their May 30 decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments

• Applying the Wage-Common to Canadian Provinces

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-16 Jonathan Lachaine

  As at the national level, available sources of hourly wage data for Canadian provinces sometimes send conflicting signals about wage growth. This note has two objectives. First, we develop a common measure of provincial wages (the provincial wage-common) to better capture the underlying wage pressures, reflecting the overall trend across all data sources.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, J, J3

• Bending the Curves: Wages and Inflation

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-15 Dany Brouillette, Madigan Dockrill, Helen Lao, Laurence Savoie-Chabot

  As economic slack continues to be absorbed and the labour market tightens, wage growth and inflation could increase faster than expected, which would suggest convexity in their Phillips curves. This note investigates whether there is convexity in the Phillips curves for Canadian wage growth and inflation by testing different empirical approaches over the post-inflation-targeting period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, J, J3
• May 16, 2018

  The (Mostly) Long and Short of Potential Output

  Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Ottawa Economics Association and CFA Society Ottawa Ottawa, Ontario

  Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the importance of potential output to monetary policy, as well as policy challenges and opportunities in a world of low potential output growth.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Productivity

• The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States

  Staff Working Paper 2018-19 Anna Maria Mayda, Giovanni Peri, Walter Steingress

  In this paper we study the impact of immigration to the United States on the vote for the Republican Party by analyzing county-level data on election outcomes between 1990 and 2010. Our main contribution is to separate the effect of high-skilled and low-skilled immigrants, by exploiting the different geography and timing of the inflows of these two groups of immigrants.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): F, F2, F22, J, J6, J61

• Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-10 Andrew Agopsowicz, Dany Brouillette, Bassirou Gueye, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Jeffrey Mollins, Youngmin Park

  This note summarizes the reassessment of potential output, conducted by the Bank of Canada for the April 2018 Monetary Policy Report. Overall, the profile for potential output growth is expected to remain flat at 1.8 per cent between 2018 and 2020 and 1.9 per cent in 2021.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6
• March 13, 2018

  Today’s Labour Market and the Future of Work

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Chancellor David Dodge Lecture in Public Finance 2018 Kingston, Ontario

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses the untapped potential in Canada’s labour market and how it extends into the workforce of tomorrow.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output

• Can Media and Text Analytics Provide Insights into Labour Market Conditions in China?

  Staff Working Paper 2018-12 Jeannine Bailliu, Xinfen Han, Mark Kruger, Yu-Hsien Liu, Sri Thanabalasingam

  The official Chinese labour market indicators have been seen as problematic, given their small cyclical movement and their only-partial capture of the labour force. In our paper, we build a monthly Chinese labour market conditions index (LMCI) using text analytics applied to mainland Chinese-language newspapers over the period from 2003 to 2017.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, C5, C55, E, E2, E24, E27