Financial markets

• March 2, 2017

  Thermometer Rising—Climate Change and Canada’s Economic Future

  Remarks Timothy Lane Finance and Sustainability Initiative Montréal, Quebec

  Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses the implications of climate change—and actions to address it—for Canada’s economy and financial system.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International financial markets, International topics

• Banking Regulation and Market Making

  Staff Working Paper 2017-7 David Cimon, Corey Garriott

  We model how securities dealers respond to regulations on leverage, position and liquidity such as those imposed by the Basel III framework. We show that while asset prices exhibit greater price impact, bid-ask spreads do not change and trading volumes may even increase.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1, L10
• January 31, 2017

  Models and the Art and Science of Making Monetary Policy

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz University of Alberta School of Business Edmonton, Alberta

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses the evolution of economic models and the need for central bankers to apply judgment in using them.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty

• Repo Market Functioning when the Interest Rate Is Low or Negative

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-3 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, James Hately, Adrian Walton

  This paper investigates how a low or negative overnight interest rate might affect the Canadian repo markets. The main conclusion is that the repo market for general collateral will continue to function effectively.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G1, G10, G12

• What Fed Funds Futures Tell Us About Monetary Policy Uncertainty

  Staff Working Paper 2016-61 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine

  The uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a “path” factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G12, G13

• Equity Option-Implied Probability of Default and Equity Recovery Rate

  Staff Working Paper 2016-58 Bo Young Chang, Greg Orosi

  There is a close link between prices of equity options and the default probability of a firm. We show that in the presence of positive expected equity recovery, standard methods that assume zero equity recovery at default misestimate the option-implied default probability.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13, G3, G33
• December 15, 2016

  Toward More Resilient Markets: Over-the-Counter Derivatives Reform in Canada

  Financial System Review - December 2016 Michael Mueller, André Usche

  In Toward More Resilient Markets: Over-the-Counter Derivatives Reform in Canada, Michael Mueller and André Usche show that the implementation of derivatives market reforms in Canada is well under way and has lessened vulnerabilities. But accompanying changes to market structure have both positive and negative effects that require ongoing attention from authorities.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G15, G2, G28
• December 15, 2016

  Monitoring Shadow Banking in Canada: A Hybrid Approach

  Financial System Review - December 2016 Bo Young Chang, Gitanjali Kumar, André Usche, Michael Januska

  In Monitoring Shadow Banking in Canada: A Hybrid Approach, Bo Young Chang, Michael Januska, Gitanjali Kumar and André Usche discuss how lending that occurs outside the traditional banking system provides benefits to the economy but must be monitored carefully for potential financial sector vulnerabilities. They describe how the Bank defines and measures shadow banking and how it assesses vulnerabilities in the sector, using an approach that examines both markets and entities.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G23

• Options Decimalization

  Staff Working Paper 2016-57 Faith Chin, Corey Garriott

  We document the outcome of an options decimalization pilot on Canada’s derivatives exchange. Decimalization improves measures of liquidity and price efficiency. The impact differs by the moneyness of an option and is greatest for out-of-the-money options.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1, L10

• Broker Routing Decisions in Limit Order Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2016-50 David Cimon

  The primary focus of this paper is to study conflict of interest in the brokerage market. Brokers face a conflict of interest when the commissions they receive from investors differ from the costs imposed by different trading venues.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G2, G24, G28