Economic models

• Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model

  Technical Report No. 102 Olivier Gervais, Marc-André Gosselin

  The authors describe the key features of a new large-scale Canadian macroeconomic forecasting model developed over the past two years at the Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F1, F17

• Optimal Margining and Margin Relief in Centrally Cleared Derivatives Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2014-29 Radoslav Raykov

  A major policy challenge posed by derivatives clearinghouses is that their collateral requirements can rise sharply in times of stress, reducing market liquidity and further exacerbating downturns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G19, G2, G21

• Uncertain Costs and Vertical Differentiation in an Insurance Duopoly

  Staff Working Paper 2014-14 Radoslav Raykov

  Classical oligopoly models predict that firms differentiate vertically as a way of softening price competition, but some metrics suggest very little quality differentiation in the U.S. auto insurance market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, D8, D81, G, G2, G22, L, L2, L22

• A Policy Model to Analyze Macroprudential Regulations and Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2014-6 Sami Alpanda, Gino Cateau, Césaire Meh

  We construct a small-open-economy, New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with real-financial linkages to analyze the effects of financial shocks and macroprudential policies on the Canadian economy. Our model has four key features.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E3, E32, E4, E44, F, F4, F41

• Unemployment Fluctuations in a Small Open-Economy Model with Segmented Labour Markets: The Case of Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2013-40 Yahong Zhang

  The recent financial crisis and subsequent recession have spurred great interest in the sources of unemployment fluctuations. Previous studies predominantly assume a single economy-wide labour market, and therefore abstract from differences across sectorspecific labour markets in the economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, J, J6

• Some Economics of Private Digital Currency

  Staff Working Paper 2013-38 Joshua S. Gans, Hanna Halaburda

  This paper reviews some recent developments in digital currency, focusing on platform-sponsored currencies such as Facebook Credits.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Economic models, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): D, D4, D42, E, E4, L, L5, L51

• ToTEM II: An Updated Version of the Bank of Canada’s Quarterly Projection Model

  Technical Report No. 100 José Dorich, Michael K. Johnston, Rhys R. Mendes, Stephen Murchison, Yang Zhang

  This report provides a detailed technical description of an updated version of the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM II), which replaced ToTEM (Murchison and Rennison 2006) in June 2011 as the Bank of Canada’s quarterly projection model for Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E20, E3, E30, E4, E40, E5, E50, F, F4, F41

• The Safety of Government Debt

  Staff Working Paper 2013-34 Kartik Anand, Prasanna Gai

  We examine the safety of government bonds in the presence of Knightian uncertainty amongst financial market participants. In our model, the information insensitivity of government bonds is driven by strategic complementarities across counterparties and the structure of trading relationships.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D8, D81, E, E4, E44, F, F0, F02, F4, F41, G, G1, G15

• Housing and Tax Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2013-33 Sami Alpanda, Sarah Zubairy

  In this paper, we investigate the effects of housing-related tax policy measures on macroeconomic aggregates using a dynamic general-equilibrium model.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Housing JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62, H, H2, H24, R, R3, R38

• Analyzing Fiscal Sustainability

  Staff Working Paper 2013-27 Huixin Bi, Eric M. Leeper

  The authors study the implications of fiscal policy behaviour for sovereign risk in a framework that determines a country’s fiscal limit, the point at which, for economic or political reasons, taxes and spending can no longer adjust to stabilize debt.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62, E65, H, H6, H63