Economic models - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-28T15:31:02+00:00Mapping out the implications of climate transition risk for the financial system
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/01/mapping-out-the-implications-of-climate-transition-risk-for-the-financial-system/
We develop a new analytical framework to understand the system-wide implications of climate transition risk. When applying this framework to Canadian data, we find that interconnections within the financial sector could amplify the direct effects of climate transition risk on financial entities.2024-01-15T15:00:53+00:00enMapping out the implications of climate transition risk for the financial system2024-01-15Modelling Canadian mortgage debt and payments in a semi-structural model
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/01/staff-analytical-note-2024-1/
We show how Canadian mortgage debt dynamics can be modelled in a semi-structural macroeconomic model, such as the Bank of Canada’s LENS. The model we propose accounts for Canada’s unique mortgage debt structure.2024-01-08T11:16:48+00:00enModelling Canadian mortgage debt and payments in a semi-structural model2024-01-08Understanding the Systemic Implications of Climate Transition Risk: Applying a Framework Using Canadian Financial System Data
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/staff-discussion-paper-2023-32/
Our study aims to gain insight on financial stability and climate transition risk. We develop a methodological framework that captures the direct effects of a stressful climate transition shock as well as the indirect—or systemic—implications of these direct effects. We apply this framework using data from the Canadian financial system.2023-12-20T14:44:11+00:00enUnderstanding the Systemic Implications of Climate Transition Risk: Applying a Framework Using Canadian Financial System Data2023-12-20Climate changeEconomic modelsFinancial institutionsFinancial marketsFinancial stabilityStaff Discussion Paper 2023-32https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/sdp2023-32.pdfUnderstanding the Systemic Implications of Climate Transition Risk: Applying a Framework Using Canadian Financial System DataGabriel BruneauJavier Ojea FerreiroAndrew PlummerMarie-Christine TremblayAidan WittsDecember 2023CC6C63GG0G01G1G10G2G20QQ5Q54Lessons learned and looking ahead
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/lessons-learned-and-looking-ahead/
In his year-end remarks, Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how lessons learned from recent economic volatility are reshaping the way the Bank of Canada conducts economic analysis and communicates with the public.2023-12-15T12:25:50+00:00Lessons learned and looking ahead2023-12-15Tiff MacklemThe path to price stability
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/path-price-stability/
Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the economy will continue to adjust to higher interest rates in the year ahead, and outlines what Canadians can expect from the Bank of Canada.2023-12-15T12:25:29+00:00The path to price stability2023-12-15Tiff MacklemMaking It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank Projections
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/staff-discussion-paper-2023-29/
Macroeconomic projections and risk analyses play an important role in guiding monetary policy decisions. Models are integral to this process. This paper discusses how the Bank of Canada brings research models and lessons learned from those models into the central bank projection environment.2023-12-11T11:19:01+00:00enMaking It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank Projections2023-12-11Economic modelsMonetary policyStaff Discussion Paper 2023-29https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/sdp2023-29.pdfMaking It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank ProjectionsMarc-André GosselinSharon KozickiDecember 2023CC3C32C5C51EE3E37E4E47E5E52International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/11/staff-working-paper-2023-56/
We evaluate, both empirically and theoretically, the spillover effects that debt-financed fiscal policy interventions of the United States have on other economies. We consider a two-country model with international portfolio rebalancing effects. We show that US fiscal expansions would increase global long-term rates and hinder economic activity in the rest of the world.2023-11-01T15:05:01+00:00enInternational Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers2023-11-01Economic modelsFiscal policyInternational topicsStaff Working Paper 2023-56https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/swp2023-56.pdfInternational Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy SpilloversSami AlpandaUluc AysunSerdar KabacaNovember 2023EE3E32E6E62FF4F41F44Machine learning for economics research: when, what and how
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/10/staff-analytical-note-2023-16/
This article reviews selected papers that use machine learning for economics research and policy analysis. Our review highlights when machine learning is used in economics, the commonly preferred models and how those models are used.2023-10-27T12:00:04+00:00enMachine learning for economics research: when, what and how2023-10-27Borrow Now, Pay Even Later: A Quantitative Analysis of Student Debt Payment Plans
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/10/staff-working-paper-2023-54/
We investigate alternative student debt contracts that defer payments and ease the burden of student loans on US households by preserving disposable income early in borrowers’ lives. Our model shows substantial welfare gains from these contracts relative to existing plans and gains similar to the Biden administration's proposals but with a significantly lower cost.2023-10-27T08:59:08+00:00enBorrow Now, Pay Even Later: A Quantitative Analysis of Student Debt Payment Plans2023-10-27Asset pricingEconomic modelsFinancial marketsLabour marketsMarket structure and pricingStaff Working Paper 2023-54https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/swp2023-54.pdfBorrow Now, Pay Even Later: A Quantitative Analysis of Student Debt Payment PlansMichael BoutrosNuno ClaraFrancisco GomesOctober 2023EE2GG5HH3A Blueprint for the Fourth Generation of Bank of Canada Projection and Policy Analysis Models
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/10/staff-discussion-paper-2023-23/
The fourth generation of Bank of Canada projection and policy analysis models seeks to improve our understanding of inflation dynamics, the supply side of the economy and the underlying risks faced by policy-makers coming from uncertainty about how the economy functions.2023-10-12T14:56:09+00:00enA Blueprint for the Fourth Generation of Bank of Canada Projection and Policy Analysis Models2023-10-12Economic modelsInflation and pricesLabour marketsMonetary policy and uncertaintyStaff Discussion Paper 2023-23https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/sdp2023-23.pdfA Blueprint for the Fourth Generation of Bank of Canada Projection and Policy Analysis ModelsDonald ColettiOctober 2023CC5C50C51C52C53C54C55